Bush’s standing rises slightly

Yet according to the poll, Americans still seem to have doubts about both the rationale for the war and its eventual outcome. Fifty-three percent say the decision to attack Iraq was the wrong decision, compared with 41 percent who believe it was the right thing to do. Moreover, another 53 percent signal that they are less confident the war will come to a successful conclusion. That figure, however, is down four points since April.

Also down is the percentage wanting to reduce the U.S. troop level in Iraq. In the January NBC/Journal poll, 66 percent said they wanted to lower the number of troops, while just 28 percent wanted to maintain the current level. Now, 57 percent believe the number of troops should be reduced.

Hart, the Democratic pollster, notes that the public's outlook on Iraq has slightly improved. "But the overall dynamic of the public wanting to make a change in Iraq has not changed at all."

Election impact
Given these numbers, McInturff says he would advise Republican candidates this fall to empathize with the public's concerns about Iraq, but also point out what the consequences of an American withdrawal from that country would be. 

Indeed, it's clear that the situation in Iraq will be on voters' minds as they head to the polls in November. Asked which one or two issues will be most important in deciding their vote for Congress, 53 percent of registered voters said Iraq. That was followed by illegal immigration (at 32 percent), abortion (at 21 percent), and tax cuts (at 19 percent).

And whom do voters prefer in November? According to the poll, 49 percent of registered voters want a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 38 percent prefer Republicans to retain control. This 11-point Democratic advantage is up from the April NBC/Journal survey, which had them leading by six points (45 to 39 percent). Prior to that April survey, however, Democrats had held at least an eight-point advantage on this question since October 2005.

In his news conference Wednesday, Bush was optimistic about the GOP's chances in the midterms. "I believe we're going to hold the House and the Senate," he said, "because our philosophy is one that is forward-looking and optimistic and has worked."

But looking at all of these poll numbers, Hart compares the November elections to an iceberg for the GOP. "The iceberg for the Republican Party is coming closer and closer," he explains, adding that Republicans still have time to steer their ship away from it.

Yet as each month passes without a significant move to the left or the right, he says, that iceberg becomes harder and harder to avoid.

Mark Murray covers politics for NBC News

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