Bush’s standing rises slightly

Mark Murray Deputy political director

WASHINGTON - After a week of positive news for the White House — including the death of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the formation of a new government in Iraq — the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that President Bush's standing has slightly improved, especially when it comes to the situation in Iraq.

But with the November midterm elections getting closer, the NBC/WSJ poll also has plenty of troubling news for the White House and the Republican Party: Bush's job approval remains below 40 percent, a majority believes that the Iraq war was a mistake, and a strong plurality prefers Democrats winning in the fall.

(MSNBC.com is co-owned by NBC News and Microsoft.)

Significance of Bush increase
Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, calls the results a "baby bounce" for Bush. "The death of Zarqawi may have improved attitudes about ... the war," he says. "But I think it changed next to nothing toward the overall attitudes about the president ... and the upcoming elections."

McInturff agrees. "You can see a slight tick up. But you don't see any influence on Bush as of yet."

According to the poll, 37 percent approve of Bush's job performance — an increase of one point since the last survey in April. This is the seventh straight NBC/Journal poll that has had Bush's job approval below 40 percent. Meanwhile, just 23 percent approve of Congress' job, while a whopping 64 percent disapprove.

This survey — which was conducted from June 9-12 of 1,002 adults, and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points — comes after a week of mostly good news for the White House and the Republican Party.

Recent NBC/WSJ Polls July 26, 2006 June 14, 2006 April 24, 2006 March 15, 2006 Jan. 30, 2006

On June 6, Republicans — worried about their standing in this political environment — won a key special congressional election in California. On June 8, news surfaced that U.S. forces had killed Zarqawi, al-Qaida's leader in Iraq. And Tuesday, Bush made a surprise visit to Iraq that dominated the news, while his chief political adviser, Karl Rove, was told he would not face charges in the leak of a CIA officer's identity. (Those last two developments, though, occurred after the poll was conducted.)

Iraq war weighs heavy on public minds
The poll also comes amid a new round of debate in Washington over the Iraq war. Some Democrats, including 2004 presidential nominee John Kerry, are calling for the United States to withdraw most of its troops from there by the end of the year. But Bush and his GOP allies disagree with that course of action. "Pulling out of Iraq before we accomplish the mission will make the world a more dangerous place," Bush said at a news conference Wednesday.

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