Bob Neumeier

Here is a savory Belmont Stakes recipe for success -- mix one part Goulash with one part Saint Ballado and, presto, you have one hell of a racing family and the likely winner of Saturday’s final leg of the Triple Crown.

The now deceased Saint Ballado is the sire and Goulash is the first dam (mother) of Sunriver, my somewhat tepid selection. His family reads like the Sutter brothers of NHL hockey fame: successful, versatile and talented.

For openers, Sunriver is a full brother to the phenomenal race mare Ashado, winner of 9 for 18 over a distance of ground, good enough for almost $4 million in earnings. That same Saint Ballado-Goulash mating for owner-breeders Aaron and Marie Jones also produced a colt named Saint Stephen, a stakes-placed runner with 5 wins in 16 attempts on the turf. This all-in-the-family trend continues with a stakes-placed full sister, Ballado’s Halo, who won 7 sprints in 15 tries. So Sunriver’s siblings have shown brilliance in distance races on dirt and grass and even sprints as well, so versatility is all over his pedigree page.

All well and good, but classic races are not won on paper. Thousands of well-bred thoroughbreds have fizzled in the 1 1/2-mile marathon that is the Belmont Stakes. But Sunriver has several points working in his favor in addition to pedigree: He’s relatively fresh (just 3 races since March 1), he’s won over the track (the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 20⁾, he’s ridden by the swashbuckling Rafael Bejarano (a rising superstar), he’s trained by New York specialist Todd Pletcher (is there anybody more consistent?) and, most important, he catches a very weak field.

Likely favorite also sleeps in Pletcher barn
Pletcher will also send out the likely favorite, Kentucky Derby runner-up Bluegrass Cat. He figures to be in the mix on paper in what I see as essentially a three-horse race: Sunriver, Bluegrass Cat and the mercurial Bob and John.

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Platinum Couple, Double Galore, and Oh So Awesome appear hopelessly overmatched. The remaining six-pack of Steppenwolfer, Deputy Glitters, Sacred Light, Jazil, High Finance, and Hemmingway’s Key will fight it out for secondary awards, filling out the bottom of your exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.

Before we try and breakdown the big three, it is important to identify the knocks on the other six:

In the case of Rick Violette’s High Finance, it is lack of two-turn experience and a sprinters pedigree on the dam side---a bad combo for a 12 furlong try.

Nick Zito’s Hemmingway’s Key finally woke up to run a decent third in the Preakness Stakes, but was never really a factor in Baltimore and might even regress off that improved effort.

Deputy Glitters bounced to the moon after his big number in the Tampa Bay Derby, when he upset Bluegrass cat at 8-1 odds. His last two have been dreadful.

Sacred Light is just a grinder that could catch a piece of the pie, the kind of long shot that could clunk in for third or fourth at 25-1.

Jazil, Steppenwolfer likely to be overbet
Jazil and Steppenwolfer are throw-outs for one simple reason: running style. They are both one-run closers that novice handicappers believe will benefit from the added distance, but that is rarely the blueprint for success in the Belmont Stakes. Sustained speed types and stalkers fare the best. Plus, both Steppenwolfer and Jazil will be overbet relative to their ability, which should provide little betting value even in exactas and trifectas under the three logicals.

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Even those three have warts. Bob and John ran dismally in the Kentucky Derby. Bluegrass Cat stunk up the track in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Sunriver could not be found with a telescope in the sloppy Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. None of them can be truly trusted from a wagering standpoint, unlike Barbaro in the Kentucky Derby and Bernardini in the Preakness Stakes, who paid an astounding price at the wickets that fateful day.

So tread carefully. As for me, I will be saving most of the chestnuts scooped up at Louisville and Baltimore for another spot later in the racing season. But since it is un-American to pass a Triple Crown race, my token cash will be on Sunriver at 3-1 to win or higher and a few superfectas with long shots Deputy Glitters and Sacred Light lower holes.               

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