Electoral earthquake could begin in California

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

WASHINGTON - If you live in Atlanta or Denver, why should you care about a special election Tuesday in a congressional district in southern California?

Answer: because the outcome tonight in California’s 50^th congressional district will be the most significant indicator we’ve yet had as to whether Republicans can keep control of the House of Representatives this November.

Put aside those generic poll questions that ask “which party would you prefer to control the House?” — those poll respondents may not even vote.

But today real live voters will decide the fates of Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby.

This election is to fill the seat vacated by Duke Cunningham, who pled guilty last November to conspiracy, fraud, and tax evasion, admitting that he’d taken $2.4 million in bribes.

Precursor of November?
This is a Republican district: Cunningham carried it in 2004 with 58 percent and President Bush carried it with 55 percent.

Bilbray is a former House member who represented a neighboring and less Republican district from 1995 to 2001, but was defeated in November 2000, mostly due to his vote to impeach President Clinton.

(There’s partial overlap between Bilbray’s old district and the one he’s now running in.)

The theory is if Democrat Busby can win today's election, Democrats will win a lot of other House races in Republican districts in November — giving them the net gain of 15 seats they need to control the House.

“One of the most unexpectedly competitive races in congressional history,” Bill Burton, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, called the Busby-Bilbray race.

Busby “has shown that a strong ‘change’ message can make even a former member of Congress vulnerable in a safe Republican district,” Burton said.

Busby “can more or less competently offer herself as a vehicle for protest,” said Gary Jacobson, professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, and an expert on congressional elections. “She’s not particularly dynamic or charismatic, but maybe that’s not what people are looking for.”

National ripple effect
Burton made the larger national point: “If the Republicans have to spend $5 million in such a district, how much will they have to spend to help Gerlach, Pryce and Shaw?”

Burton was referring to three endangered Republican House members: Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, Deborah Pryce of Ohio and Clay Shaw of Florida.

Referring to reports that more than 150 House Republican staffers had been dispatched to the district to help turn out the vote for Bilbray, Burton said, “They won’t be able to do that in 40 or 50 races this fall.”

Burton said the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had spent $2 million to help Busby.

“You’ve got Busby attacking ‘the culture of corruption’ and attacking Bilbray as a lobbyist; Bilbray has tried to make illegal immigration the pivotal issue,” said veteran California Republican political consultant Allan Hoffenblum, who is not working for either candidate.

But Bilbray may not be tough enough on illegal immigration for some voters.

An independent candidate, William Griffith, is also on the ballot and has won the support of the Minutemen, a citizen-run, anti-illegal immigration group that patrols the Mexican border.

MORE FROM POLITICS

Politics Section Front

Dinner crashers met Obama, White House says Lobbyists pushed off advisory panels Ho-ho-ho! White House Christmas tree arrives Old fridge? ‘Cash for Appliances’ looms Obama: Too many fear end of American dream Camera crew filmed White House crashers Obama to speak Tuesday on Afghanistan policy U.S. sets climate target ahead of summit Newsweek quiz: How well do you know Sarah Palin? Records show White House health care talks Politics Section Front   Add Politics headlines to your news reader: