Even if you've never attended a horse race,
you can pick the winner of the 138th running of the Belmont Stakes with this interactive introduction to the art of handicapping. Click the tabs on the left to learn about some of the important factors experts look for when they dissect a horse race. Then decide which factors will be important and which won't in this year's running of the third leg of the Triple Crown and -- with your computer's help -- pick your horse.
Bluegrass Cat
Morning-line odds: 3-1
Post position: 9
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 4 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $761,280
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Owner: Winstar Farm
Pedigree: Storm Cat/She's a Winner (A.P. Indy)
Key fact: Colt rebounded with second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, checking in 6 1/2 lengths behind runaway winner Barbaro. He's been given five weeks to get over that taxing effort, and given his high-profile connections he seems likely to go off as the luke-warm favorite.
Bob and John
Morning-line odds: 5-1
Post position: 4
Lifetime starts: 10
Record: 4 wins, 1 second, 3 thirds
Earnings: $680,070
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Owner: Stonerside Stable
Pedigree: Seeking the Gold/Minister's Melody (Deputy Minister)
Key fact: Got smacked around pretty good in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Grade I Wood Memorial, but has been trailing great in California while preparing for this. Should be a decent price despite high-profile connections and may offer the best value among the logical contenders in the field.
Deputy Glitters
Morning-line odds: 15-1
Post position: 7
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 2 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds
Earnings: $205,180,270
Trainer: Tom Albertrani
Jockey: Edgar Prado
Owner: Joseph Lacombe Stable
Pedigree: Deputy Commander/Glitters (Glitterman)
Key fact: He has been refreshed since his eighth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, 14 1/2 lengths behind winner Barbaro. Colt did win the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby earlier this year, and has possible excuses for wet track drubbing in the Wood Memorial and rough trip in the Derby, so it's not impossible to make a case for him.
Double Galore
Morning-line odds: 30-1
Post position: 10
Lifetime starts: 5
Record: 1 win, 0 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $38,720
Trainer: Myung Kwon Cho
Jockey: Mike Luzzi
Owner: Myung Kwon Cho
Pedigree: Grand Slam/Squall Linda (Summer Squall)
Key fact: Low profile owner-trainer shoots for the moon with colt who just broke maiden at Hollywood Park on May 19. Horse does possess speed - a commodity in short supply in this field - and is nicely bred for the distance, but it stretches the limits of credulity to imagine him winning this.
Hemingway's Key
Morning-line odds: 15-1
Post position: 3
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 2 wins, 0 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $159,498
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Jeremy Rose
Owner: Kinsman Stable
Pedigree: Notebook/Whirl's Girl (Island Whirl)
Key fact: Turned in his best showing in quite awhile in the Preakness, when he rallied from far back to grab third, 11 1/2 lengths behind winner Bernardini. George Steinbrenner-owned colt could show further improvement, but he hasn't been close at the finish in five starts this year. It's hard to envision him returning to the winner's circle.
High Finance
Morning-line odds: 12-1
Post position: 5
Lifetime starts: 5
Record: 2 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $75,145
Trainer: Rick Violette Jr.
Jockey: Eibar Coa
Owner: West Point Stable
Pedigree: Talk is Money/Margay (Conquistador Cielo)
Key fact: Earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure - the highest in the field -- in winning a one-mile allowance race at this track May 4. That was a much, much softer field he wired that day, but on paper he looks like the lone speed of the Belmont field and he could be the upset special if he can get away with an easy lead and save energy for the lane.
Jazil
Morning-line odds: 10-1
Post position: 8
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 1 win, 3 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $272,217
Trainer: Kiaran McGlaughlin
Jockey: Fernando Jara
Owner: Shadwell Farm
Pedigree: Seeking the Gold/Better Than Honour (Deputy Minister)
Key fact: One of many runners in here who like to come from the clouds and will be hoping for a decent pace. He came from dead last to dead heat for fourth in the Kentucky Derby, but will need to make up another three lengths to get past Louisville rivals Steppenwolfer and Bluegrass Cat. Added distance gives him a chance of doing that.
Oh So Awesome
Morning-line odds: 20-1
Post position: 6
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 1 win, 2 seconds, 2 thirds
Earnings: $33,262
Trainer: James Jerkens
Jockey: Mike Smith
Owner: Tem Valor Stables
Pedigree: Awesome Again/Identify (Persian Bold)
Key fact: Kentucky-bred colt finished third in a cheap stakes race in his first stateside start after an unexceptional European campaign. He did finish well that day and it's intriguing that his lone win across the pond came at 1 5/16 miles, suggesting the 1 1/2-mile distance of the Belmont might be right in his wheelhouse.
Platinum Couple
Morning-line odds: 30-1
Post position: 1
Lifetime starts: 10
Record: 2 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds
Earnings: $125,457
Trainer: Joseph Lostritto
Jockey: Jose Espinoza
Owner: Team Tristar Stable
Pedigree: Tale of the Cat/Ingot's Dance Away (Gate Dancer)
Key fact: Can't see much cause for optimism after watching him get trounced in the Wood Memorial and the Preakness. Connections must figure it's worth a shot with the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners absent, but this field has a number of good horses in it and he's still in deep.
Sacred Light
Morning-line odds: 15-1
Post position: 12
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 1 win, 2 seconds, 2 thirds
Earnings: $148,340
Trainer: David Hofmans
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Owner: Amerman Racing Stables
Pedigree: Holy Bull/Summer Glimmer (Summer Squall)
Key fact: Colt has yet to finish in front in his career, as his lone win came last year via disqualification at Del Mar. Taking the optimistic view, he finished second to West Coast division leader Brother Derek in the Grade II Santa Catalina Stakes, and his late-running style didn't help his cause on the speed-favoring California tracks.
Steppenwolfer
Morning-line odds: 9-2
Post position: 11
Lifetime starts: 9
Record: 3 wins, 2 seconds, 3 thirds
Earnings: $561,520
Trainer: Daniel Peitz
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Owner: Robert and Lawana Low
Pedigree: Aptitude/Wolfer (Wolf Power)
Key fact: Closer has hit the board in all but his first start, and has done it while facing toughest 3-year-olds in the land in his last four starts. He hasn't been able to break through against top company, so you have to hope the added distance will enable him to mow them all down in the stretch if you like him.
Sunriver
Morning-line odds: 4-1
Post position: 2
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 3 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $281,400
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Owner: Aaron and Marie Jones
Pedigree: Saint Ballado/Goulash (Mari's Book)
Key fact: Colt ground down leader Lewis Michael in the stretch to win the Grade II Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont three weeks ago. He only finished 3 1/2 lengths behind Barbaro when third in the Florida Derby and his connections wanted to run him in the Kentucky Derby but couldn't get in because he lacked sufficient earnings. Deserves serious consideration.
Belmont Park track
The Belmont Stakes is a 1 1/2-mile race on the main track for 3-years-olds and is the longest race of the three-race series known as the Triple Crown. Belmont's main track - a 1 1/2-mile oval - is known as "Big Sandy," a nickname that refers to both the composition of the running surface (predominantly sand) and the broad, sweeping turns. It would seem logical that the marathon distance of the Belmont Stakes would favor horses that come from off the pace, but front-runners have held their own and can't be disregarded. Jockey Eddie Arcaro, who won the race a record six times, called it "the fairest-run race in America."
The factors
There is no limit on the number of factors that can be considered in handicapping a race - some experts even try to compensate for the wind when evaluating a previous performance by a horse. But for today, let's confine ourselves to six of the most important considerations.
Speed & Pace
Using previous performance as a guide, the handicapper attempts to accurately forecast whether the front-runners will dominate or the closers will flash by in the stretch.
Class
Comparing the level of competition each horse has faced and the measure of success he or she has enjoyed makes it possible to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Pedigree
Stamina is particularly important in the Belmont Stakes, and a horse's lineage can hold some important clues about whether he is capable of handling the marathon distance.
Form
Horses who have run well in the recent races hold an edge over those whose latest efforts have been sub-par. But an improving horse is the most dangerous of all.
Jockey
Riders who have gained seasoning in previous Belmonts and demonstrated an ability to make split-second decisions can mean the difference between victory and defeat.
Trainer
Forced into the role of spectator during the race, the trainer is nonetheless instrumental in the outcome. A good one will have the horse ready to give its all on race day.
Speed & Pace
You want to put your money on a horse that can run fast, whether it does it on the front end or finishes like a shot. The best way to gauge how fast a horse has run in its previous races is through speed figures that evaluate each overall performance.
At the same time, a handicapper who can correctly predict how a race will be run has a much better chance of winning than the horseplayer with no idea which horses will go to the front, which will engage the leaders turning for home and which will attempt to run past the leaders in the final strides.
The reason, as handicapping pioneer Huey Mahl put it, is that pace makes the race.
The basic theory of pace handicapping is this: The faster a horse runs at the beginning of a race, the less energy it will have left for the stretch run. As a general rule, a race in which three or more horses battle for the lead will result in faster-than-average fractions and set the stage for a come-from-behind victory. Conversely, a race in which a lone horse is allowed to set a comfortable pace tends to favor the front-runner or horses that can stay within a length or two of the lead.
With the Kentucky Derby winner and top two finishers in the Preakness Stakes absent from the Belmont Stakes this year, the top contenders have lower than average speed figures. But that doesn't really matter since they only have to run against the horses that show up in New York.
Give plusses in this category to the horses that have earned at least one triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure: Bluegrass Cat (101), Bob and John (102), Deputy Glitters (102), High Finance (103) and Sunriver (102).
On the pace front, this year's field appears to be light on front-runners, with only High Finance and Double Galore appearing likely to go to the front.
This suggests the pace will be slower than average - about 1:12 3/5 for the first 6 furlongs, which should give the front runners an advantage.
Give a plus in this category to High Finance and Double Galore, with neutrals for Bluegrass Cat and Bob and John, both of whom have demonstrated the ability to engage the leaders before the field turns for home.
Negatives to the rest.
Class
When racetrackers talk about a horse's class, they are talking about a combination of natural ability, consistency and heart. Handicappers have tried different approaches to try to quantify it, such as average earnings per start or the number of victories in Grade I stakes races, which draw the very best horses.
No matter how you define it, though, the Belmont Stakes has proven a stern class test for horses who have never before raced 1 1/2 miles against top class competition.
Give positives to those horses who have finished first or second in Grade I or Grade II stakes races - the highest-caliber racing in the country - or who have finished three or fewer lengths behind the winner in such a race.
In this year's field, give positives in this category to Bluegrass Cat, Bob and John, Jazil, Sacred Light, Steppenwolfer and Sunriver.
Give neutrals in this category to Deputy Glitters, a winner of the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby this spring.
The remainder of the field gets a negative in this category.
Pedigree
Although pedigree analysis is of questionable value in many races, it has proven its worth in the Belmont Stakes.
Since stamina is at a premium at this rarely run marathon distance, we'll give a plus to horses whose ancestry says they can run this far, which unfortunately includes most of the field.
Two horses get negatives in this category because their "dosage" - a figure developed to measure horse's distance capabilities - is 4.00 or higher. They are High Finance (4.00) and Sacred Light (4.60).
Since that doesn't provide much to go on, we'll also penalize horses that have a Tomlinson distance figure (published in the Daily Racing Form) of 280 or lower: Hemingway's Key (280), Platinum Couple (254), Sacred Light (254) and Sunriver (257).
Give a plus to the remainder of the field.
Form
Form - shorthand for the way a horse has run in its most recent races - looks deceptively simple to evaluate, but this factor contains numerous traps for the handicapper.
Although it's better to enter a big race off several strong efforts within at least five weeks of this race, horses are not machines and there is no guarantee that a contestant's last race will be repeated on race day. Likewise, horses that have run poorly in their recent races can suddenly rediscover that winning formula. And there's always the dangerous improving horse, who can turn in the race of a lifetime when you least expect it.
Nonetheless, give a positive in this category horses who enter the Belmont off several strong efforts - defined here as finishes within 3 1/2 lengths of the winner -- High Finance and Sunriver.
Give the neutral ratings to the horses who have run one good race in their last two - Bob and John, Double Galore, Jazil, Oh So Awesome, Sacred Light and Steppenwolfer - with negative marks going to the remainder of the field.
The jockey
Triple Crown races also point a white-hot spotlight on riders, and it can be dazzling to those who have never stood in its glare before. Being tongue-tied in interviews is one thing, but if a rider's nervousness and excitement makes even the slightest impact on his or her judgment, the results on the racetrack are likely to be disappointing.
Which is why trainers with legitimate contenders line up each year at the doors of the top jockeys, aiming to land a rider who has shown the right stuff in the big races.
Give positive marks to horses whose riders have won the Belmont: Deputy Glitters (Edgar Prado) and Hemingway's Key (Jeremy Rose).
Slight deductions to horses whose riders have won other Triple Crown races: Oh So Awesome (Mike Smith) and Sacred Light (Victor Espinoza).
All others get a penalty in this category.
The trainer
Trainers who have survived previous immersions in the pressure-cooker of Triple Crown racing and kept their snap deserve added consideration in their return engagements.
That's because the contrast between the trainer's usual quiet routine and the scrutiny that comes with the Belmont Stakes is more pronounced than the difference between the NBA regular season and the playoffs.
The bottom line is that some trainers will be thrown off their game, throwing caution to the wind or becoming overly cautious in their preparations, overlooking an important detail or forgetting to pass a key piece of information to an exercise rider. The result may not be disastrous, but even the slightest misstep can be enough to get your horse beat.
Even better than having survived previous Triple Crown races is having won. That marks that trainer who will have his runner ready to go 11/2 miles on Saturday.
Consequently, we'll give plusses to the entrants of the three trainers with Belmont Stakes victories to their credit: Bob and John (Bob Baffert), Hemingway's Key (Nick Zito) and Sacred Light (David Hofmans).
Give a neutral to Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver (Todd Pletcher), Deputy Glitters (Tom Albertrani) and Jazil (Kiaran McLaughlin) by virtue of their trainers' positive Triple Crown experience.
All other get a knock in this category.