Are you prepared for the next Big One?

In San Francisco, the Fritsch family knows they are living on shaky ground.

Now, they would like to know what might happen to their home if the Big One hits.

At least the Fritsches know about the risks in San Francisco. In other parts of the country, they don’t.

Nearly 2,000 miles away, in the south-central states, folks are used to disasters like tornadoes and floods. But earthquakes?

New Madrid, Mo.
In New Madrid, Mo. there’s a mysterious geological fault that many Americans know nothing about.

And if you think what you don’t know can’t hurt you...think again.

Nearly 200 years ago in 1811 and 1812, the ground was violently ripped apart by a series of exceptionally strong earthquakes. That could happen again tomorrow. 

Eugene Schweig, USGS: A repeat of what happened in 1811 or 1812, that is a magnitude 7 ½, 7.7 earthquake occurring in the Mississippi Valley, would be a disaster.

Eugene Schweig is a research geologist with the U.S. Geological survey.

Schweig: There have been studies recently that show that just building losses alone would exceed $70 billion just for one earthquake.  And we expect more than one earthquake.

The New Madrid earthquakes of 1811 and 1812 sent shock waves all the way to Washington D.C. and the White House.   Here, on what was then the frontier, whole villages were destroyed and settlers were terrified.

Lynn Bock, Historian, New Madrid Historical Museum: When the ground beneath your feet is rolling like a wave, your house is falling down. Things are being thrown into the air, out of the earth—they had never experienced anything like that.

The New Madrid quakes are still mysterious because researchers don’t know where the fault line is that set them off. But seismologists say cities and towns up and down the Mississippi Valley are at risk for a catastrophe.  

Memphis, Tenn.
According to seismologists, St. Louis is one of the cities at risk. But they say there’s even more risk in other places - especially Memphis, Tennessee. 

Schweig: We would expect shaking to be quite severe in Memphis.  It has a lot of old buildings, old infrastructure…

Memphis and many of the cities and towns along the Mississippi have thousands of un-reinforced brick masonry buildings that could become deathtraps.

Claude Talford runs the Memphis-Shelby county emergency management agency.

Claude Talford, Memphis-Shelby emergency management agency: We have 3 major bridges. If the damage was substantial enough that those bridges collapsed—a lot of the buildings in the downtown area would collapse. So you have a lot of people trapped, and injured and probably dead.

Many of the city’s bridges are now being retrofitted. 

The risk of a giant quake here is considered smaller than on the West coast, but still a one-in-ten chance of a massive quake in the next 50 years. 

Charleston, S.C.
Over on the Eastern seaboard, there’s another city that you might not think of at risk.   

But on the warm sultry night of August 31^st, 1886, Charleston, South Carolina was devastated by an earthquake that might have been as strong as a magnitude seven.

An estimated 90 percent of all the brick buildings in the city were destroyed and the shock waves were felt as far away as Milwaukee and Boston.

City residents were panic-stricken, and at least 60 people died.

Richard Cote, historian: Some people described the sounds as 1,000 freight trains from hell all arriving at the same station.

Historian Richard Cote wrote a book about the disaster:

Cote: The electricity, the telegraph lines and the gas lights were all snuffed out within seconds leaving Charleston completely dark, terrorized and a huge cloud of dust and people yelling, running and screaming in pain and agony everyplace.

Little is known about the fault that caused the great Charleston quake, and some residents think this was just a freak occurrence that cannot happen again. 

Schweig: It could be a very dangerous assumption.  And the likelihood of an earthquake in Charleston is probably somewhere between two and ten percent in the next 50 years, quite significant.

New York
And then, there’s the biggest American city of all.

Chuck Scarborough, news anchor: We are sitting on a seismic time bomb.

One of the most trusted and recognized people in all New York, longtime WNBC-TV anchor Chuck Scarborough is known for his calm, cool demeanor.  But when it comes to a major earthquake in the New York area, he has been sounding the alarm for nearly 20 years:

Scarborough: It’s going to happen some day.  The question is are we going to be ready?  And we aren’t now.  The structures here simply are not build strongly enough to withstand a quake and it would be a major disaster.

Scarborough has been a leading voice in raising public awareness about the risk in New York, and even wrote a novel about a disastrous quake in the Big Apple.

Scarborough: The fact is that we are in an area that does have seismic activity, that has a billion year history of seismic activity, that has significant earthquakes from time to time.  They don’t happen nearly as often as they do in the West Coast.  But there are reputable seismologists who’ll tell you that we’re overdue right now.    

Back in 1884, New York was jarred by a moderate quake.   But in those days, the city was much smaller and not a maze of skyscrapers, tunnels and water mains... so there was not severe damage.  

In the future, New York might not be so lucky.

Mary Lou Zoback, U.S.G.S.: There are a number of faults that we recognize running beneath New York.  There are moderate to small earthquakes.  And that always indicates there is potential for larger earthquakes.

That’s true in upstate New York and New England as well. Bear in mind that the chances of a big quake here are smaller than in the West. But if it happens...

Scarborough: The water mains beneath Manhattan would rupture.  They’re ancient and brittle anyway.  Flooding the subway tunnels.  The streets are filled with debris.  Fires are burning. Scary enough for you?

MORE FROM EARTHQUAKE

Earthquake Section Front

Are you prepared for the next Big One? Hoda Kotb: Shaken and stirred Interactive: When's the next big one? Slide show: The Big One, then and now San Franciscans mark quake moment Special Report: Not ready for next one After 1906, wedding bells and basinets Special Webcast: '60 Seconds and a Fire' NBC: How much would 1906 quake cost now? NBC: Yes, they remember the 1906 quake Earthquake Section Front   Add Earthquake headlines to your news reader: