Would Pelosi be able to lead a majority?

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

WASHINGTON - With expectations of success in the Nov. 7 congressional elections building among Democrats, let’s consider the size and composition of a House Democratic majority -- and what kind of leverage that majority would have.

If Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi gets at least 218 seats to win a majority, a small but decisive number of her members would be centrist and conservative Democrats such as Rep. Melissa Bean of Illinois, Rep. John Salazar of Colorado, and Rep. Jim Marshall of Georgia.

Last week Bean, Salazar, and Marshall — all locked in tough races -- reminded Pelosi with their votes for the Republican-sponsored tax cut that they side with President Bush and the Republicans on some big issues.

Only 15 Democrats voted for the $70 billion bill, which continues the current tax rates on capital gains and dividends, while 182 Democrats voted against the measure.

"Another windfall for the wealthy while everybody else gets to work for a living," jeered Rep. Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, denouncing the tax breaks which his fellow Democrats Bean, Salazar, and Marshall were about to vote for.

Bean and about a dozen other centrist-conservative Democrats could hold the balance of power in a Pelosi-led House.

In fact, even in the GOP-controlled House, on some votes these Democrats already hold the balance of power.

In addition to the tax bill, centrist Democrats have voted for:

• A bill implementing the Bush administration’s CAFTA free-trade agreement with Central American nations, which passed last year 217-215. Fifteen Democratic "yes" votes supplied the margin of victory.
• The GOP-sponsored Lobbying Accountability and Transparency Act, which the House OK’d two weeks ago by a vote of 217 to 213. Eight Democrats supplied the winning margin. Most House Democrats, 192 of them, voted against the bill. Emanuel called it “the incredible shrinking bill. With each passing day, it has become weaker and smaller. If we were going to vote on it tomorrow, it probably would be a blank page.”
• A bill to make it more difficult for debt-laden consumers to declare bankruptcy, which the House passed last year.

On each of these votes, Pelosi, Emanuel and most House Democrats voted in opposition to maverick conservative-centrist Democrats. Despite their ideological differences with the conservative-centrists, Pelosi and Emanuel have thrown their fundraising weight behind them.

Liberal veterans would be chairmen
If Democrats win the majority, the chairmen of powerful House committees will be veteran liberals such as Rep. Henry Waxman of California, Rep. John Conyers of Michigan, and Rep. David Obey of Wisconsin, who hold “safe” seats far different in character from Bean’s Republican-leaning district in Illinois or Salazar’s GOP turf in rural Colorado.

“It’s very possible Democrats could get the majority and be even more fractured” than they are now, said Democratic strategist David Sirota.

"Many of the potential chairmen — Waxman, Obey, Conyers — have been waiting around a long time," he said.

Waxman would be chairman of the investigative panel, the Government Reform Committee, while Obey would likely head the Appropriations Committee and Conyers the Judiciary Committee. "They probably have a good idea of what they want to do. And they also happen to be the more progressive members. The problem is Pelosi has younger members who are more corporate-conservative. So potentially you have a situation where the (Democrats’) House caucus is paralyzed.”

Sirota, a former aide to left-leaning Rep. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and to Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, is the author of the hard-hitting new book, Hostile Takeover, which denounces CAFTA, the bankruptcy bill, Republican tax cuts, and centrist Democrats’ ties to business interests.

Sirota has advice for would-be Speaker Pelosi on how to manage the split between her and the Bean-Salazar-Marshall Democrats.

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