Who wins if GOP loses in November?

Mark Murray Deputy political director

WASHINGTON - Make no mistake: Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is doing whatever he can to help Republicans this fall. After all, he has endorsed 50 GOP candidates from 28 different states, doled out $16,800 from his leadership PAC to some of them, and appeared at 14 fund-raisers and candidate events since April.

But if Republicans suffer losses in November, as political analysts are predicting, McCain might not lose as much sleep as some his GOP colleagues will. The reason, experts say, is that a bad 2006 for the GOP could actually boost McCain’s presidential chances in 2008, because Republican voters might be more inclined to support someone who’s seen as reformer and who isn’t directly tied to the Bush White House.

Journalists and political junkies have been focusing their attention on the upcoming midterm elections, which take place exactly six months from Sunday. Or they’ve already begun concentrating on the 2008 presidential race. But few have looked for links between the two: that the midterms might have some impact on which candidates have a leg up — or a leg down — in 2008.

McCain is the most obvious example. His support of campaign-finance reform, his opposition to congressional earmarks and his occasional dust-ups with the Bush White House all appeal to independents and even some Democrats. But conservatives and GOP stalwarts don’t always trust him for those same reasons. (However, some Republicans have begun to warm up to him, while Democrats’ support has cooled off, as McCain reaches out to conservatives and Bush loyalists while eyeing a presidential bid.)

Yet, if Republicans end up losing in November — analysts predict that Democrats will pick up seats in the House and Senate, although probably not enough to take control of either chamber — then McCain might be the medicine they’re forced to swallow to hold onto the White House.

“If it’s a bad day for the Republicans, what is the antidote to that?” asks nonpartisan political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. “It is two words: John McCain.”

Recent NBC/WSJ Polls July 26, 2006 June 14, 2006 April 24, 2006 March 15, 2006 Jan. 30, 2006

As Rothenberg recently explained in his Roll Call column, “The more gloom and doom surrounding his party, the better McCain looks. The more the GOP needs to counterpunch with its own message of change, reform and leadership, the more attractive McCain appears to Republicans, independents and Democrats.”

2006 losses could hurt other GOP candidates
While GOP losses in 2006 could help McCain — or someone else like former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or a Republican governor — they could hurt other possible Republican candidates, such as Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn. “It is difficult to launch a presidential campaign on the heels of losing Senate seats,” says Erik Smith, a Democratic strategist. “Whether it’s fair or not, you own that.”

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