'Overdue and underprepared' for a pandemic

Ann Curry • Profile

Last Sunday, April 23, Dateline showed you what might happen if a pandemic were to occur soon. But does it have to be that way?  Could a vaccine be produced sooner? 

Could hospitals be better prepared?

Co-anchor Ann Curry spoke to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Mike Leavitt, the man charged with preparing the U.S. for the next pandemic. Below, is more of that interview.

ANN CURRY, DATELINE CO-ANCHOR: This is your operations room. What happens here?

SEC. MIKE LEAVITT: This we use this far more than we wish we did.  This is where we’re tracking flu, it’s where we’re tracking storms, it’s where we’re tracking anything that could have an adverse effect on the people of United States, or our humanitarian interests around the world.

CURRY: I see, “H5N1”—

LEAVITT: We’re actually tracking birds, we’re tracking at least the flu from birds.  You can see those that have actually had confirmed cases, and you can see those where we have suspected. And you’ll see that there are parts of the world that we know very little about. When you get into Burma, when you get into parts of China, when you get into parts of Southeast Asia; we just don’t know a lot about what’s going on there.

CURRY: I notice here you have a graph, “Total Human Deaths”.  Do you think that’s accurate, or under reporting the total human deaths?

LEAVITT: Well again, we don’t know. One would suspect, in the vastness of Asia, in the vastness of Africa, that there have been those who have contracted the flu, that we don’t know about.  There are parts of Asia, for example, where Vietnam’s had many deaths, but there are 54 million farms in Vietnam.

We can’t possibly know what’s going on in the villages of Vietnam, or Thailand, or Laos; the same will be true in Africa.  So, there’s a lot we don’t know about.  There’s a lot we don’t know about the virus—but we’re doing everything we can to track it, and to watch it.  We have the best people, literally, in the world, doing it.

CURRY: If it hits us, as a pandemic, it’ll happen very fast. Is this where you’re going to be?

LEAVITT: It’s unlikely, frankly, that we will see it happen  rapidly.  It’s more likely that we’ll see the virus begin to develop, and migrate, or rather, mutate in a fashion that will allow us to begin to see it happen.  Now, that’s what the scientists are telling me.  In 1918, that wasn’t the case. 

CURRY: Okay, but you seem to think we’re gonna get warning if this thing mutates?

LEAVITT: We just don’t know.  It’s possible that we’ll begin to see the virus mutate in a way that will become person to person transmittable.  It’s also possible, that just somewhere we’ll suddenly see a case—where there is person to person transmission.

We’re watching the virus, literally, everyday.  We know its mutating.  All viruses do.  To the extent that it’s possible to have information, but there’s a lot we don’t know as well.

CURRY: You know, you’re the top guy, in terms of trying to protect Americans from getting this disease if it comes. How would you describe it?

LEAVITT: Well pandemics happen.  They have happened since the beginning of time.  We have had 10 pandemics in the last-- 300 years, we’ve had three in the last 100 years.  There’s no reason to believe that the 21^st Century will be different than any previous centuries.

CURRY: People think that the level of science, the level of medical care, is such that we can be protected now.

LEAVITT: When it comes to a pandemic, we’re overdue, and we’re under prepared.

CURRY: So, we should not be confident that the system can keep us from having, potentially, massive deaths, if in fact, we do have a pandemic?

LEAVITT: We are better prepared today, than we were yesterday, and we’ll be better prepared tomorrow, than we are today.  But this is not a new risk.  This has been part of humanity, since the beginning of the time.  It’s a biologic fact; these things occur.  When they do occur—they are world changing events.  They change, not just the health of millions, they change the politics, they change the prosperity, they change the society of entire regions of the world.

CURRY: What is it like to have your job at this time in our history?

LEAVITT: Well, this is a sobering job.  But there are remarkable people who surround me; the Center for Disease Control, National Institutes of Health, the World Health Organization—lots of people thinking about this.  And it’s the kind of thing, that frankly—is frightening to people.

And we want it to be put in perspective.  It’s the kind of thing we want to inform people of, but not enflame them.  We want to inspire their preparation, but not panic.  One of the things we worry about, is that as people hear about various stages of this, that they will become so concerned, that their would behavior that would, ultimately, not be in any of our interests.  SARS was an interesting example of that.

SARS, in pandemic terms, was a very small event.  Eight thousand people contracted SARS, worldwide.  Regrettably, about 800 of them died.  But in pandemic terms, that’s very small.  It paralyzed the Chinese economy—it made a substantial impact on other parts of the world.  The communication of this, in a factual, thoughtful way; so that people are not panicking, or they’re in no way, inflamed by misinformation.

Life goes on.  The vast majority of people who are involved in a pandemic live.  Some of them get sick, but we need to keep it in perspective, and be as well prepared as humanly possible.

MORE FROM OUTBREAK: COULD IT HAPPEN HERE?

Outbreak: Could it happen here? Section Front

In the case of a pandemic Sec. Leavitt: 'We're overdue and underprepared' Behind-the-scenes footage and videos Cooking chicken thoroughly kills bird flu Full coverage on BirdFlu.MSNBC.com Government issues tips Are children more at risk for bird flu? Hygiene best defense against bird flu Readers ask about bird flu Virus predicted to bust out again and again Outbreak: Could it happen here? Section Front   Add Outbreak: Could it happen here? headlines to your news reader: