GOP diversity aims at a crucial Democratic bloc

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FIRST READ

It's McCain versus the Clintons

The Anti-Obama?
Of course, Blackwell and his camp think they're also well positioned to win in November.

If Blackwell wins the May 2 primary, Ohio political expert John C. Green of the University of Akron says he has the potential to do well with African-American voters in a general election, since he’s performed well among them (by Republican standards) in his past campaigns. Green also notes that Blackwell’s appeal to religious voters and his conservative views -- the Chicago Tribune has called him the anti-Obama -- could help him with African-Americans who oppose abortion and gay marriage.

At the same time, however, Blackwell’s high-profile role in the 2004 election could hurt him with these same voters.

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Critics charge that Blackwell, who served both as Ohio’s chief election official and as state co-chair of the Bush-Cheney campaign, was to blame for the long lines and a dearth of voting machines in predominately African-American polling places in Ohio, which they contend was intended to depress black (and thus Democratic) turnout.

But Blackwell and his campaign vociferously deny that accusation, arguing that Ohio experienced huge voter turnout in 2004, and that there were long lines in both white and black communities.

They add that the only ones who are complaining are liberal Democrats and bloggers. “When you come down to the communities, it is something that is not an issue,” said Blackwell campaign spokesman Carlo LoParo.

Still, political analysts believe that the political scandals plaguing the GOP in Ohio -- Republican Gov. Bob Taft last year pleaded no contest to violating state ethics laws, for example -- might be Blackwell’s biggest hurdle in a general election.

“He’s got the money. He’s got the social conservatives,” says Duffy of Cook Political Report. “But how does he do in Ohio? How does any Republican do in Ohio?”

That question, of course, can be taken a step further: How does any Republican -- who is black -- do in Ohio, Maryland, Michigan, or Pennsylvania? Not well, it appears right now. But a victory in November by any of these four candidates would certainly transform the Republican Party -- and maybe American politics.

Mark Murray covers politics for NBC News. NBC’s Holly Phillips contributed to this article.

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