As fears grow, scientists race to battle bird flu

With news that migratory birds could carry avian flu to the United States sometime this spring, people across the nation have stepped up their worrying. And scientists have stepped up their efforts. Companies are scrambling to develop tests, drugs and vaccines to detect, treat and prevent human cases and head off the potential for a pandemic.

Just how hopeful are drug makers that such products will turn into blockbusters, simultaneously making their mark on the virus and company cash flow?

Consider this: Though pandemic flu is a fear rather than a certainty — unlike, say, heart disease, which is the leading killer in the United States — AVI BioPharma, a Portland, Ore., biopharmaceutical company, has sold off most of its cardiac drug business to concentrate on infectious disease drugs, notably treatments for pandemic flu. That, despite the fact that the company filed only in March with the Food and Drug Administration to begin testing its leading avian flu drug candidate in humans.

AVI BioPharma’s business strategy — betting the farm on a product largely of use only if, and it’s a big if, the H5N1 virus moves significantly from birds to humans — is actually a growing phenomenon. More and more companies, and investors, are putting up cash, and hope, that a growing list of products will be the ones to turn H5N1 into a preventable or treatable illness.

Kleiner Perkins Caufield and Byers, for example, a highly regarded venture capital firm in Menlo Park, Calif., announced its $200 million Pandemic and Bio Defense Fund earlier this year, with money earmarked for products aimed at detecting, preventing and treating "global pathogenic infectious diseases."

NBC NEWS SPECIAL REPORT Why worry? Experts explain Skeptics warn against hype Is your town ready? What’s really scary about bird flu Robert Bazell: Preparations long overdue Ann Curry: Bird flu’s fear factor Dateline: Fears of pandemic   Today  video: Is U.S. ready? Nightly News: Why Seattle is prepared   Weekend Today: How could bird flu spread? Interactive map: Track bird flu's spread Migratory routes: Follow the birds MSNBC.com: Bird Flu|What you need to know

And in early April, the avian flu index on 19 products tracked by the investment strategy firm TrendMacrolytics, also based in Menlo Park, was up 12 percent over the month before. The S&P 500 index was up only 1 percent for the same time period.

Most of the companies now working on diagnostic tests, vaccines and drugs for avian flu have had at least prototype products in their pipeline for years. But Donald Luskin, TrendMacrolytics’ chief investment officer, says three things have heated up the scientific fervor over a possible pandemic in just the last few months: embarrassment of the Bush administration over its Hurricane Katrina response, resulting in a massive effort to inform the public about pandemic flu; the recent spread of avian flu to developed countries including Israel, Turkey and Scotland; and the fact that scientists now know that avian flu is likely being spread by migratory birds "which means that by the end of 2006 there will be avian flu in birds on every continent."

Science still preliminary
At this point, however, experts think the science is impressive but still very preliminary.

So far, only one new drug for avian flu, Peramivir, made by BioCryst of Birmingham, Ala., has started U.S. human clinical trials, says John McCamant of the Medical Technology Stock Letter.

Peramivir is a neuraminidase inhibitor, which means it is in the same drug class as Tamiflu and Relenza, both of which are already approved to prevent and treat influenza. But Tamiflu may not be effective against all strains of the bird flu virus, and Relenza, an inhaled drug, may not be effective for people with chronic lung problems and in people whose lungs are impacted by the virus.

In its oral form, Peramivir did not prove to be effective, but the company is now testing it in injectable form, which did seem to work in animal studies.

INTERACTIVE Facts not fears Questions and answers about avian influenza

While BioCryst and its investors are hopeful about the potential effectiveness of injectable Peramivir, Klaus Stohr, head of the World Health Organization’s pandemic flu effort, reminded a group of scientists gathered for a sobering meeting on pandemic flu vaccines at Cleveland’s Case Western Reserve University in early April that there is no evidence yet that neuraminidase inhibitors reduce deaths from pandemic flu.

The vaccine conference was sobering because the group, gathered together to learn about novel pandemic flu vaccine approaches, took place just a couple of weeks after the New England Journal of Medicine published a study confirming what was already suspected — the current stockpiled vaccine against avian flu made by sanofi pasteur, one of two companies with a government contract for pandemic flu vaccine, only generates an immune response at a dose of 90 micrograms, or 12 times the dose needed for the annual seasonal flu vaccine. If the dose needed per person can’t be decreased, the current U.S. stockpile only has enough vaccine for 4 million people.

But new technological ideas for avian flu abound. "I’m often struck by the innovation that comes out of crisis," says Dr. Bruce Gellin, head of the U.S. government’s Vaccine Program Office.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), which is handing out the bulk of government funding for avian flu research, counts about 30 companies now testing vaccines for pandemic flu.

MORE FROM BIRD FLU

Bird Flu Section Front

Compound identified that may fight bird flu Egyptian woman contracts bird flu Bird flu found on Kentucky poultry farm Vietnamese woman infected with bird flu Vietnam reports 2nd bird flu case this year 3 Hong Kong birds test positive for bird flu No signs Canada bird flu outbreak has spread China warns of 'grim' fight against bird flu China reports second bird flu death Beijing woman dies from bird flu, China says Bird Flu Section Front   Add Bird Flu headlines to your news reader: