• Wednesday, April 12, 2006 | 1:20 p.m. ET
From Huma Zaidi

Immigration hurting GOP and Dems
As much attention is being paid to the split within the majority party over where to draw the lines on immigration reform, it's worth noting that immigration has proved to be divisive for Democrats as well, specifically on a guest-worker program.  For starters, the AFL-CIO, the country's largest coalition of labor groups and a key component of the Democratic party's base, has spoken out against a guest worker program, calling it a "bad idea."  President John Sweeney has said they "remain deeply troubled by the expansion of guest worker programs -- for workers not already in this country -- contemplated by the bill voted out of the Senate Judiciary Committee.  Guest workers programs are a bad idea and harm all workers."

In December, 36 Democrats voted for the narrower immigration bill passed by the House, which did not include a guest-worker proposal.  One of them, Rep. Ted Strickland of Ohio, who is now running for governor, says he regrets his vote.  Another Democratic gubernatorial candidate, David Hahn of Nebraska, has spoken out against the guest-worker program, arguing that it would result in a "continuous underclass."

On the Senate side, Sens. Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, along with Sens. Ben Nelson of Florida and Robert Byrd of West Virginia, voted against a bill that would allow undocumented immigrants to obtain citizenship.  Dorgan has called on US employers to pay better wages to give current citizens more motivation to take jobs that critics say immigrants would gladly do. Byrd called the guest-worker program a "dangerous proposal," while Conrad says the country's first priority is to secure its borders.

Also, as the New York Times reports today, Sen. Ted Kennedy's desire to achieve immigration reform is putting him at odds with some in his party who worry that Kennedy will "cede too much to Republicans and that the end product will fall short on the guest worker and citizenship provisions favored by most Democrats."

• Wednesday, April 12, 2006 | 9:25 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi and Holly Phillips

First glance
Suddenly, gas prices are back as a political issue.  The Energy Information Administration says prices are likely to be 25 cents higher on average this summer than a year ago, though they may start to decline further into the season.  Consumers should expect to pay, on average, $2.62 per gallon -- assuming nothing else occurs to affect production.  CNBC's Jim Cramer on Today this morning called that estimate "optimistic" and said Americans may be paying more, though he also said the US economy is stronger than he's seen in years.  A weekly report due out today which is expected to show a drop in US oil stockpiles may exacerbate current concerns.  But as we learned from recent hurricanes and refinery fires, prices hinge mainly on refinery capacity and distribution.  While much of Washington focuses on the national security implications of an Iranian nuclear program, the markets are focused on whether efforts to deal with Iran might result in a disruption in the Iranian oil supply.

As the Administration also learned last fall, when gas prices go up, Bush's job approval rating and public sentiment about the economy tend to go down.  The prospect of higher fuel costs thus complicates the White House's recent big push to sell the otherwise strong US economy -- as they seemed to acknowledge last night with a press release titled "Setting the Record Straight," which attacked leading Democrats for criticizing Bush on the economy and reels off the latest round of positive data.  Whether by coincidence or design, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) became the focal point for the GOP offensive yesterday.  Clinton, who delivered a presidential campaign-level economic speech in Chicago last night, offered the media a preview on Monday which gave Republicans fodder all yesterday to accuse her of talking down the economy and criticize her for voting against the Bush tax cuts.

The tax cuts, incidentally, remain at the center of the overall economic debate, largely because Republicans have so firmly linked them to the economy's strength, arguing that extending them is vital to maintaining that strength.  The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll and other surveys continue to show that Americans have little appetite for extending the tax cuts in the face of more pressing domestic concerns -- including energy prices.  At the same time, the effort to extend the tax cuts remains one point of unity for Republican lawmakers and a prospective legislative victory for them as they remain split over immigration and the budget.

On his second day spent plugging his Medicare prescription-drug benefit, President Bush heads to Annandale, VA for an event at Northern Virginia Community College at 1:50 pm.  Yesterday, en route to Bush's RX event in Missouri, Medicare administrator Mark McLellan told reporters that "more than 29 million seniors have enrolled and 400,000 more are enrolling each week," and that "more than 1,000 enrollment seminars like the ones" Bush visited yesterday in Missouri and Iowa "are held across the country each week."  While Republicans tout the growing ranks of the enrolled and the positive results those seniors are seeing, Democrats focus on how the complexity of the plan is keeping other seniors from following suit.  Prior to his RX event, Bush meets with the President of Ghana at the White House at 11:05 am.

Last night, the GOP congressional leadership issued a joint statement trying to shift blame for the House's harsh-sounding border security-focused immigration bill onto Democrats and even walk the bill back somewhat, noting, "it remains our intent to produce a strong border security bill that will not make unlawful presence in the United States a felony."  Democrats are claiming victory, noting that Republicans have been swayed by the protests taking pace around the country.

NBC's Joel Seidman advises to expect another court filing today by lawyers for former Cheney chief of staff Lewis "Scooter" Libby in response to last week's filing by special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald, and that the response may result in further questions about the White House's activities around the time of Ambassador Joe Wilson's criticism of the Administration's WMD-based case for going to war in Iraq.

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And the Republican National Committee's convention site selection team watched presentations yesterday by 11 cities who are "very interested" in hosting the 2008 convention, per RNC communications director Brian Jones.  Some cities who wish to host the convention weren't able to appear yesterday, he added, noting that those cities will be given other chances to make their case before the May 22 deadline for bids.  The RNC expects to have a list of finalists decided by mid-summer, with site visits in August.

It's the economy...
Bloomberg on yesterday's oil market: "Oil traded near a seven-month high in New York on concern supplies from Iran, the world's fourth-biggest producer, may be disrupted by a confrontation over the country's nuclear program."

“U.S. Energy Department forecasters warned that fuel costs - nudging toward $3 a gallon in New York - would climb an additional 10 to 15 cents by Memorial Day, one of the year's busiest driving weekends.” – New York Daily News

The Wall Street Journal notes that "a significant new factor is also driving prices up.  Broad energy legislation enacted last summer has helped push oil companies to shift from one gasoline additive -- known as MTBE -- to another -- ethanol. Most oil companies have decided to make the change by May 5."

In her speech in Chicago last night, Sen. Hillary Clinton "offered an alternative path to the policies pursued by President Bush, reproaching the current administration's record without directly attacking or even naming the incumbent.  The closest she came to direct criticism was when she focused on the core of Bush's policies, saying, 'Tax cuts alone cannot secure the middle class.  They are not the cure-all for everything that ails the American economy.'" – Washington Post

The immigration debate
The Washington Times notes that the Hastert-Frist statement yesterday that they will work toward an immigration reform bill "that will not make unlawful presence in the United States a felony" "removes a primary concern held by many Democrats who say that the yearlong imprisonment carried by a felony conviction is too harsh.  House Republicans also said yesterday they are committed to rewriting a section of their immigration bill that caused an uproar among religious and humanitarian leaders who say the law could be used to prosecute them if they unwittingly give food or shelter to someone who turns out to be an illegal alien."

The Washington Post, looking at how the issue has become a moving target, says "many House Republicans are" rethinking their 2005 border security-focused bill, which "they thought would please their political base," but has become "a lightning rod for the fast-growing national movement for immigrant rights."  "The politics of the issue have shifted markedly since the House acted.  Republican lawmakers are increasingly saying they will now consider some avenue to grant illegal immigrants access to lawful employment.  And Democrats who voted for the House bill with an eye on their political futures or to preempt feared attacks from conservatives are rethinking their position."

The New York Times front-pages how Sen. Ted Kennedy’s effort to forge a compromise with Republicans on the Senate immigration bill has irked some of his Democratic colleagues, who "worry that the senator... will cede too much to Republicans and that the end product will fall short on the guest worker and citizenship provisions favored by most Democrats.  They believe Mr. Kennedy made similar miscalculations when he cut initial deals with Republicans on Medicare drug coverage and education policy.”

The Boston Globe looks at whether the Latino community can sustain its efforts long enough to influence policy, noting that it will be difficult.  Still, activists are establishing PACs and voter and citizenship drives, as well as planning another round of protests for May 1.

Dallas lawmakers, for example, were unswayed by the demonstrations and instead are "cemented their views" to fight for tougher immigration laws, writes the Dallas Morning News.  Analysts say the lawmakers, "most of them conservative Republicans - feel free to stick with the hard-line position reflected in the border-security bill that the House passed in December."

First, Democratic-leaning 527 organizations proliferated in 2004.  Then supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton began building a separate national fundraising and organizing network.  Now, in arguably yet another blow to the DNC's relevancy, The Hill reports that some "prominent Hispanic former Clinton Administration officials who are "not fully satisfied with the Democratic National Committee’s outreach to the Hispanic community are participating in a soon-to-be launched multimillion-dollar effort to brand the Democratic Party among Hispanic residents."  The officials "say the effort is needed because the national party does not have a major outreach effort focused solely on Hispanics," though a DNC spokesperson talks up how focused the committee is on wooing them.

More on the Bush/GOP agenda
The new Washington Post/ABC poll shows that "among those who have enrolled" in the Medicare prescription-drug plan, "three-quarters said the paperwork was easy to complete and nearly two-thirds said the program saved them money," suggesting a potential political opportunity for Bush and the GOP, even as Democrats point to the millions of seniors who have not yet signed up and attack Republicans for a plan they say is too confusing.

The Des Moines Register, covering Bush in Iowa yesterday pitching the Medicare prescription drug plan, notes that a larger percentage Iowa's seniors have enrolled in the program than in many other states.

USA Today reports insurers "handling Medicare's new prescription-drug coverage say they're being more lenient as the program enters another uncertain phase.  As a result, patients' advocates say they are not getting as many complaints from consumers."

Bloomberg spotlights how Bush's health care initiatives, which he played up in his State of the Union address, "are stalled in Congress, with little chance for passage...  Bush's health-care agenda may join other key domestic initiatives that he has been unable to get through a reluctant Republican-controlled Congress," like his desired Social Security, tax code, and immigration reforms.  The story notes that although Bush "is touting his health-care plans to the public," yesterday, "at an event in Jefferson City, Missouri, Bush made no mention of his proposals, focusing instead on" the Medicare prescription-drug program.

Disaster politics
With only three candidate having a strong shot at making it to the runoff, and another four having some chance at it, the New Orleans Times-Picayune says that "leaves 15 candidates" for mayor "who are running mostly for the sake of running: to try to make their names better known, to raise issues they think the major candidates are ignoring or just to get in on the excitement of a political campaign."  The paper also examines each candidate's reasons for running.

There was a surge in early voting yesterday, reports the Times-Picayune, with African-Americans making up the majority of those turning out.

Ethics
Even though they didn't win the race outright in yesterday's open primary, Democrats are claiming a "dramatic win" in jailed former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham's San Diego-area district last night.  School board member Francine Busby, the 2004 Democratic nominee, took the greatest percentage of votes but fell a few points short of the 50% necessary to claim the seat.  She now advances to a June 6 runoff against the top-placing GOP finisher, expected -- but not yet certain -- to be former Rep. Brian Bilbray.  Democrats are calling the outcome a victory for their "GOP culture of corruption" theme.  "Busby's dramatic win shows that Democratic, independent and Republican voters simply want change," Democratic House campaign committee chair Rahm Emanuel said in a written statement.  They're taking their chance while they have it, since the district tilts Republican and Busby may well lose the runoff.

The San Diego Union-Tribune adds that the process of replacing Cunningham will be incredibly complicated.  “That is because the June 6 runoff...  will be held on the same day as the regular state primary election, when party nominees for the next full term, beginning January 2007, will be chosen…  [M]ost of the 18 candidates from Tuesday's election will be on the regular June primary ballot competing for their respective party nominations - although it is unclear if any of Tuesday's also-rans will continue campaigning.”

House Republicans are looking for the least risky way to present their lobbying and government reform bill. – The Hill

The midterms
Despite Democratic efforts to highlight some GOP candidates' nervousness at appearing publicly with Bush or Vice President Cheney, the pool report from Bush's visit to Jefferson City, MO yesterday noted that GOP Sen. Jim "Talent was never out of the frame."  And The Hill reports that GOP Rep. Jim Nussle, who's running for governor of Iowa, touted his $1 million intake from his fundraiser with Bush in Des Moines last night.

California gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides (D) told the Sacramento Bee yesterday that he is the underdog in his primary battle against Steve Westly for the right to challenge Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R).  “‘I'm being outspent dramatically on TV and will be all the way to the finish line.’”

And as Democrats try to link Schwarzenegger to President Bush, the San Francisco Chronicle notes that Bush’s approval rating is just 32% in California, per a new Field Poll.

The end of the legislative session marks the start of Maryland's much-anticipated gubernatorial race, in which GOP Gov. Bob Ehrlich is expected to face a tough challenge from, it appears today, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley (D).  "Ehrlich and the Democrats vying to unseat him said yesterday they believe that this year's rancorous session provided a strong backdrop for the political season ahead.  To the governor, it provided evidence of a Democratic Party on a leftward philosophical slide.  To his Democratic rivals, there was proof that the state's first Republican governor in a generation cannot work with others to find consensus." – Washington Post

The New York Daily News covers Sen. Hillary Clinton stumping for Bob Casey (D) in his bid to defeat Sen. Rick Santorum (R) of Pennsylvania.  The article quotes the head of the National Organization for Women’s Pennsylvania chapter, who said she was disappointed at Clinton helping the pro-life Casey.  “Clinton's office said the main issue for her isn't Casey's stance on abortion but his positions on everything else, especially compared with the conservative Santorum.”

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