Shiite politics nearing an impasse in Iraq

updated 7:26 p.m. ET April 6, 2006

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Iraq’s embattled prime minister vowed Thursday to pursue his bid for a second term despite pressure from home and abroad to step down, signaling no early end to the standoff blocking a crucial national unity government.

Shiite politicians suggested they may turn to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the sole figure with the authority to make a decision that risks shattering Shiite unity.

In a brutal reminder of the stakes if Iraqi leaders cannot reverse the slide toward chaos, a car bomb exploded Thursday in the country’s most sacred Shiite city, Najaf, killing 10 people and wounding more than 30.

Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari told reporters he would relinquish his mandate only if parliament refuses to approve him or if the seven groups within the Shiite alliance withdraw their nomination, which he won by a single vote in a caucus in February.

The Shiite bloc controls 130 of the 275 parliament seats, enough for first crack at the prime minister’s job but not enough to govern without Sunni and Kurdish partners. But the Sunnis and Kurds demand that al-Jaafari be replaced, blaming him for the sharp rise in sectarian tensions that threatens to plunge the country into civil war.

Al-Jaafari has refused to stand down despite pressure from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, who personally urged the Iraqis to break the logjam during a two-day visit this week.

Political showdown could prompt violence
Shiite officials fear a showdown over al-Jaafari could tear apart the Shiite alliance and risk a violent reaction from radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who runs the feared Mahdi Army militia and is a key supporter of the prime minister.

To break the deadlock, Sunni and Kurdish politicians suggested that parliament convene Wednesday to decide al-Jaafari’s fate. But Shiite officials decided Thursday to delay the session until all Iraqi parties agree on nominees for other posts, including the national president and speaker of parliament, Shiite politician Khalid al-Attiyah said.

Al-Attiyah said the impasse had become “very complicated” and al-Jaafari’s supporters within the alliance want to ask the advice of al-Sistani, the country’s most respected Shiite cleric.

That would give Shiite politicians political cover and could avoid a showdown with al-Sadr.

It is uncertain, however, whether al-Sistani wants to become involved in an internal Shiite political struggle. Unlike his counterparts in Iran, he has long maintained that clerics should remain above politics and instead offer moral guidance.

Al-Sistani’s aides have said the Iranian-born cleric has become frustrated with the performance of Shiite religious parties, which dominate the outgoing government, and with the rising tensions between Shiites and Sunnis.

But the weakness of Iraqi political institutions, which were revived only after the 2003 collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime, has prompted al-Sistani to take stands on political issues, especially during the early months of the U.S. occupation.

Al-Sistani’s repeated demands for elections forced several changes in the U.S. blueprint for restoring Iraqi sovereignty and prompted the Americans to speed up their timetable for the first nationwide ballot in January 2005.

Turning to al-Sistani, however, would be a tacit acknowledgment by Shiite political leaders that they lack both the stature and the political legitimacy to make difficult and potentially divisive decisions.

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