Who does impeachment/censure talk benefit?

Advice to Democratic candidates
Feingold also sought to boost the morale of Democrats running this November (a group he isn't part of): “Some have said to me that this will be a difficult issue for some of our candidates who are running this November. To them I say; ‘Say what you believe. If you think it is appropriate to censure the president, say so. If not, say not.” 

Instead of favoring the Democrats or the Republicans, impeachment and censure might be motivating issues for loyalists in both parties and could drive up fundraising and turnout on both sides in November.

Republican strategist Patrick Davis said the chief effect might be on fund raising.

“Censuring a sitting Commander-in-Chief in war time while we have troops in the field in harm’s way will motivate patriotic Americans of all stripes to reject this political trick outright,” Davis said. “Even the other ultra-liberal Democrat, Tom Daschle, who is vying to fill the gap on the left which used to be occupied by Paul Wellstone is not joining the call for censure. It is, however, a fruitful line for direct mail fundraising copy that both sides will use to raise money with their most ardent supporters.”

But one Democrat who e-mailed me this week about Feingold said some party loyalists will stay home on Election Day if the Democrats don’t get behind Feingold’s censure crusade.

“The Democratic base is getting sick and tired of the whining, wimpy Democratic leadership at the national level,” said Darla Wilshire of Altoona, Pa. “We are the voters who will stay home in November, not the Republicans. Why? Because the party can't stand up for its principles, like those demonstrated by Russ Feingold.”

Cities and towns where impeachment is hot ...
If one looks at the cities where impeach-Bush resolutions have been approved by local elected councils or boards, a push by congressional Democrats on impeachment or censure is most likely to boost Democratic voter turnout in the places where the party is already dominant:

• San Francisco's Board of Supervisors voted to support Bush’s impeachment. This is Pelosi’s own district, which she won in 2004 with more than 80 percent of the vote.
• Santa Cruz, Calif., has also OK’s an impeachment motion. This city is in the congressional district of Rep. Sam Farr, a six-term Democrat who won re-election to his seat with more than two-thirds of the vote.
• Another pro-impeachment city, Arcata, Calif., is in the district of Democrat Mike Thompson, like Farr, re-elected with more than two-thirds of the vote.

If, due to fervor over impeachment or censure of Bush, Democrats can increase their voter turnout by ten percent in San Francisco, Santa Cruz and Arcata, it will make no difference to control of the House or Senate.

Pelosi, Farr and Thompson are coming back for another term in the House in 2007, impeachment or no impeachment.

... and where it's not
But the Democrats Pelosi needs, if she hopes to go from being the leader of a frustrated minority to the triumphant Speaker of the House, are those in more conservative Midwestern and Southern districts carried by Bush in the 2004 election -- places such as Georgia’s Third congressional district, represented by conservative Democrat Rep. Jim Marshall.

Marshall, whose district Bush carried with 56 percent of the vote, said Thursday, “Many people in my district are concerned about the NSA spying and I receive regularly letters suggesting that I call for the president’s impeachment. And I regularly respond that I know of nothing the administration has done that warrants impeachment proceedings."

He said calls for investigating this and investigating that "tend to undermine our resolve with regard to what I consider the principle issue we as a country have to deal with right now, and that’s Iraq.”

He said the NSA surveillance should be brought under supervision of the courts, but he also said that if the Democrats win the House in November, “what I expect is that the House of Representatives is going to stay firmly behind the war effort.” 

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