Electricity crisis at its worst point in Iraq

Meanwhile, demand kept rising as Iraqis bought imported air conditioners, washer-dryers, DVD players and other power-hungry appliances. To help fill the gap, households or neighborhood groups are buying diesel-run generators, stringing dangerous makeshift wiring around their homes.

Demand, almost 9,000 megawatts last summer, is expected to rise sharply this year, and the Army engineers responsible for Baghdad are worried.

“We’re about 4,000 megawatts in the hole nationwide to meet our needs,” Maj. Al Moff, 4th Infantry Division electricity specialist, noted at a recent internal briefing for division officers.

He said the system risked losing 300 megawatts more in hydroelectric power because the Tigris River was running extremely low. But a recent agreement by Turkey to release more upriver water appears to have lifted that threat.

Energy from Iran could be an option
One solution could be power from Iran: one Iraqi proposal is for a transmission line to import much more than the 100 megawatts of Iranian power Iraq now buys.

The U.S. Embassy won’t talk about it, in view of Washington’s animosity toward Tehran over its nuclear ambitions. But the reconstruction office’s Waters said one of the U.S.-financed Iraqi substations under construction could handle more Iranian power.

“Completing an Iran transmission line could give them up to 1,500 megawatts,” said Army engineer Moff.

The Iranian Embassy says Tehran has earmarked $1 billion in loans for Iraqi infrastructure, mostly for electrical power, the Iranian news agency reports.

Even if a major Iran linkup is built, however, other projects may stay in the blueprint stage unless more aid is forthcoming from Washington or other donors.

“We have a lot of unfinished projects because of a lack of government funding,” said the Electricity Ministry’s al-Saadi.

A $20 billion undertaking
Reconstruction chief Johnson agrees with Iraq’s five-year cost estimate. “It’s probably in the range of $16 to $20 billion to complete the infrastructure to provide 24/7 sustainable power to all the citizens of Iraq,” she said.

In the long term, Johnson said, it’s essential for Iraq to open its power industry to private investment. That would mean making it profitable by following the advice of the World Bank and others to raise rates; Iraqis now pay 50 cents to a dollar a month.

Can people afford more?

Hassan’s family already cannot afford fuel for its small generator. “Most of the time we can’t use it,” the Baghdad housewife said.

Whether she and others can afford higher rates, a classic “chicken and egg” problem confronts energy-short Iraq, said Moff.

“Before you can raise rates,” he pointed out, “you have to have power.”

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