‘Skating’ through part one of a bloated finale

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So who will win? Well, these shows tend to come down to momentum. If you saw Drew Lachey take "Dancing With The Stars" from Jerry Rice and Stacy Keibler, you know that Stacy was the early preemptive favorite, just as Jillian was. Drew was always good, but he surged at the end, peaking at just the right time. That may or may not translate, of course, in a competition that doesn't involve viewer voting.

If it does, though, it would seem to give Kristy the advantage. She and Lloyd have steadily improved, while the judges have seemed to pick at Jillian and John for not adding more risk to their routines, or for stumbling when they do. (It isn't clear what the impact of the technical flub in their routine was, given that the differences in scoring were mostly on the artistic side. Perhaps the judges don't think dropping your partner is evocative enough.)

Straight skating ability, however, seems to slightly favor Jillian. Kristy and Lloyd have been known to take a tumble or two themselves. While they've made great strides with slow, lyrical performances, they haven't done much uptempo choreography in recent weeks. If they finish up with a fast number, a major mistake isn't outside the realm of possibility.

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Kristy and Lloyd take a lead of four-tenths of a point into the final performance on Thursday. With the scores compressed closer and closer to a perfect 10 as the competition progresses (prediction: at least one 10 will show up for someone on Thursday night), that lead isn't as tiny as it appears. If both teams put on good performances, it may eventually turn out that this first set of routines makes the difference, meaning that the moral of pairs skating is just as we've all come to believe it is over many years of watching the Olympics.

"Try not to drop your partner."

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