Last shot for Research In Motion?

Will users stick around?
If the workaround does turn out to be troublesome, it's not likely to cost RIM that many customers; switching carriers is costly, and most users will probably stick around regardless of the nuisance. But all the trouble and resultant bad press would probably force RIM to settle quickly — and on NTP's terms; a deal that could cost a billion dollars or more.

Another possible scenario has RIM and NTP settling before Spencer makes his ruling. But at the moment, NTP has the advantage, and it seems unlikely they'd cash out before getting a ruling.

Not everyone thinks a decision to enforce the injunction is a given. Stephen B. Maebius, a patent lawyer and partner with Foley and Lardner in Washington, D.C., says the case is simply too close to call, and that patent rulings in RIM's favor have blown the case wide open: "Now it's kind of a tossup."

Nor will Yankee Group's Signorini speculate on Spencer's ruling. But he does says the distraction has already hurt RIM: Even though it hasn't cost the company many customers, many will question their long-term BlackBerry investment. "RIM has opened up the avenue for competitors," he says. Companies that stand to benefit from a wounded RIM include smartphone competitors Palm (nasdaq: PALM - news - people), Nokia (nyse: NOK - news - people ), Motorola (nyse: MOT - news - people) and Sony Ericsson (nyse: SNE - news - people), as well as software vendors like Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people).

Complicating RIM's prospects is the likelihood that even if it can get a good settlement, the company will be hit with lawsuits from shareholders angry that it spent so much time and money to fight NTP's claim.

Plenty of BlackBerry users remain faithful to Research in Motion — and to their favorite gadget. "We are not worried about service being shut down," says Beth Perlman , CIO of Constellation Energy Group and another BlackBerry fan. "We have spoken to executives at RIM and feel comfortable that they have proven workarounds."

Of course, that doesn't mean they won't jump ship if they have to. "We have been testing [Microsoft's] Windows mobile devices for some time," says Perlman. "We have these devices ready for executives should the need arise. So we're prepared either way."

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