First glance
Six months after Hurricane Katrina hit, the Bush administration's handling of the response is subject to fresh debate and criticism in light of an AP report that per previously undisclosed briefings, Bush and homeland security chief Michael Chertoff were warned by other officials and hurricane experts prior to the hurricane that the levees could be breached.  Shortly after Katrina hit, Bush commented, "I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees."  White House officials say the tapes of the briefings show what they have suggested all along -- that Bush, from his Crawford ranch, oversaw an effort that his officials were charged with implementing.

All of which injects new meaning, and perhaps more than a dash of partisanship, into the bipartisan congressional delegation which arrives in the Gulf Coast today.  About 32 House members, including leaders from both sides, will examine progress made in clean-up and rebuilding.  The group will visit the Lower Ninth Ward, Gulfport and Pass Christian, and Lakeview, among other particularly hard-hit areas.  They will overnight in New Orleans tonight and Friday.

The revelations also give embattled Mayor Ray Nagin a new line of argument as he casts about for ways to fend off criticism for his own handling of the crisis, which has turned his race for re-election from a walk in the park to an uphill slog.  Please see below for more Katrina briefing, Dubai Ports World (the deal is scheduled to close today), and other security-related news today.  We're sticking with New Orleans.

Voters there go to the polls on April 22 in what's likely to be a two-step process of electing a mayor.  For observers around the country without a stake in this race, this will be a spectacle about whether or not Nagin gets re-elected.  For those with a stake, this question will be answered after almost eight months of uncertainty: Which residents of New Orleans before Katrina hit consider themselves to be residents now?  How many have left the city not only in body, but also in spirit?

Some voting-rights activists continue to hold out hope that the election will be postponed again (it was originally scheduled to take place in February) so that systems can be put into place to allow evacuees living outside Louisiana to cast their votes at satellite polling places, rather than via absentee ballot.  Evacuees living within Louisiana will be able to vote at one of 10 satellite polling stations, and evacuees living in nearby states can drive to one of those stations and cast ballots.  But efforts to legally compel election officials to set up stations outside the state have failed thus far.  The Justice Department has said that the scheduling of the election is up to state officials, who so far are sticking with April 22, with a runoff scheduled for May 20 if no candidate breaks 50% in the open primary.  The qualifying period ends tomorrow.

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The most famous mayor in America since Rudy Giuliani, Nagin is being challenged by as many as a dozen candidates, including at least one African-American.  He seems likely to win one of the two runoff slots -- but then again, he may not.  Among his most formidable challengers (at least per the usual standards of resources and polling, with the caveat that nothing about this election is as usual) are Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, brother of Sen. Mary Landrieu and son of former Mayor Moon Landrieu, and Ron Forman, the head of the Audubon Nature Institute, which is responsible for the city's zoo and aquarium.  Attorney and former minor-league baseball team owner Rob Couhig is running as the only outright Republican of the crowded field, and the Rev. Tom Watson is running as the alternative African-American candidate.  The election is nonpartisan.

The evacuees are at the center of two emotionally and politically charged debates -- first, over what must be done to ensure that they have the means to vote, and second, over how many of them in fact will vote.  Many have settled around the country into affordable homes, new jobs and new school districts, all of which the battered city still can't offer them.  The transformation of a majority-black city into a majority-white one, which the breakdown of the electorate in this race is expected to show, is a hypersensitive undercurrent to this election.  "In the civil-rights, voter-empowerment world, disasters -- natural or man-made -- leading to the removal of incumbent black officials is not a good precedent," says Ken Smukler, president of InfoVoter Technologies, a voter contact firm.

One source tracking the legal efforts in the election asserts that "very, very few" evacuees "don't consider themselves to be a part of New Orleans, especially those who are close by."  This source suggests that "the lack of housing and the speed and pace of rebuilding effort" has put them "in a situation where they have to make some hard choices."  But, he says, "voting becomes one of the few things that they can do and maintain their status as a citizen of New Orleans."  Some political analysts disagree.  John Maginnis of LaPolitics.com, for one, says he's "real skeptical that there will be much of an absentee vote at all" because many evacuees have settled into their new locations.  Others note that low-income African-Americans at least traditionally haven't been inclined to vote absentee.

Inextricably linked to the question of whether or not the evacuees will vote is the debate over whether they have sufficient access to absentee ballots.  Per state law, the ballots must be requested before they can be sent, and then must be filled out and mailed back.  If evacuees don't vote in large numbers, some may charge that it's because they didn't have enough access.  Local lawmakers have gone to court to try to gain access to the FEMA list of evacuees, but state election officials have fended off those efforts by arguing that the list should not be made available to the general public.  Officials are using the list to try to reach potential voters outside the city, and they also say that the absentee ballot form is easily accessible on the web.

Although the evacuee situation was largely determined by race -- "whites relocated closer to New Orleans, blacks are the ones who got put on planes," says Maginnis -- it would be a gross oversimplification to suggest that the electorate also will break down by race, with blacks supporting Nagin and whites splitting between the white candidates.  First, some African-Americans are as angry or angrier with Nagin as whites, if not more so.  Second, close observers expect Landrieu in particular to draw biracial support; Landrieu's father was the last white mayor of New Orleans and the family has a history of winning black and white support in their campaigns.  Nagin, however, may find it to his advantage to emphasize race as an issue, which could make the race less about his own leadership and play to fears that the city will become dominated by whites.

Lastly in this (relatively brief, all things considered) summary of the major points of this election, there's the daunting prospect for candidates and campaign operatives of running a race without knowing who or where many of the voters are.  Usually they have some sense heading into an election of the particular parameters of the electorate.  In this case, it's the election itself that will help determine the parameters of the new New Orleans.

Disaster politics
The AP has a full rundown of what's in the newly rediscovered Katrina briefing tapes.

The Washington Post: "Democrats said the tape shows Bush being warned in urgent terms of the potential magnitude of the storm, making" the Administration's slow response "less defensible.  White House officials said the footage reinforces" that Bush "was fully engaged from the opening hours... while leaving operational decisions to the agencies in charge."

The New York Post picks up on a Financial Times report that former President Clinton "advised the United Arab Emirates on how to reduce opposition to its takeover of New York port operations - opposition led by his wife, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton." while a "spokesman insisted that Clinton nevertheless agrees with his wife and that, ideally, state-owned companies shouldn't own U.S. port operations, the report said."

Security politics
Yesterday, the day before their purchase of operations at six US ports is scheduled to close, NBC News learned that Dubai Ports World had yet to re-file with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which will trigger the 45-day re-investigation.  Another loophole that has yet to close: The final House vote to reauthorize the Patriot Act has been put off until next week; the act expires on March 10.

The Washington Post says the administration, via CFIUS, "has launched a second security investigation of another Dubai-owned company set to take over" precision-component manufacturing plants in Georgia and Connecticut, as well as a probe of an Israeli firm hoping to buy a Maryland-based security software company.

The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing today on potential changes to the CFIUS review process, and Banking chair Richard Shelby told the Financial Times that "he would propose legislation to force the White House to be more transparent about its investigations, lengthen scrutiny of 'complex cases' and require 45-day reviews of deals involving foreign state-owned companies...  [S]everal of the most powerful US business groups" warned Congress in a letter yesterday that "'altering the basic structure' of Cfius would encourage countries to impose barriers to US investment abroad."

The New York Times looks again at the politics of the ports deal, noting that GOP members are hearing an earful of criticism about it from constituents.  “It is not clear what kind of staying power the deal has as an issue, but for now Republicans have little choice but to acknowledge the objections they are hearing from voters.”  The article also mentions the latest twist in controversy: the revelation of a 2002 al Qaeda memo asserting that the group had infiltrated the United Arab Emirates.  But experts wonder if that particular claim is hyperbole.

The Washington Times says the controversy is having little negative effect at the grassroots level.  "Interviews with Republican leaders yesterday revealed that the flurry of concern at the party's base when the story broke largely has dissipated after a massive information offensive through party communications channels."

The Los Angeles Times outlines the competing proposals from Republican Sens. Arlen Specter and Mike DeWine on domestic spying guidelines.  In the meantime, a group of Senate Republicans said they're working toward creating "legislation that would impose stricter congressional and judicial oversight on the Bush administration's warrantless domestic spying program...  Lawmakers said that divisions remained on many specifics, though."

A new national Quinnipiac poll finds that voters, by a 76%-19% margin, believe the government should continue monitoring communications between suspected terrorists and people inside the United States.  But 55% say the government should get a court order for this type of surveillance.  The poll also has Bush's approval rating at 36% -- his worst rating in this particular survey.

Bush in India
The AP calls the nuclear accord between the United States and India a coup for the Administration, although "[s]ome lawmakers in Washington contend that the Bush administration is essentially making a side deal to the international nonproliferation treaty.  Critics in India, meanwhile, are wary that the United States is meddling in Indian affairs, and is using India as a counterweight to China's growing economic and political influence."

Texas
Supreme Court justices, including potential swing vote Anthony Kennedy, didn't sound too supportive of Texas Democrats' claim that their state's mid-decennial redistricting, orchestrated by Rep. Tom DeLay (R) and associates in 2003, was unconstitutional.  USA Today says "several justices seemed to suggest that gerrymanders are an inevitable result of elections."

But the Dallas Morning News notes that a majority of justices "seemed open to the possibility that one part of the map - a finger from Central Texas to the Lower Rio Grande Valley - might have disenfranchised Hispanic voters," says the Dallas Morning News.

In more SCOTUS news, the New York Times reports on the note that Justice Sam Alito sent to James Dobson, the conservative evangelical, thanking him for his support during Alito’s confirmation.  A court spokeswoman said Alito responded to many congratulatory letters from people of all walks of life.

Also yesterday, the Justice Department sued the state of New York to force it to comply with the Help America Vote Act's requirement that states update their voting machines.  New York election officials had planned on using the same old lever-pull machines again this year. – New York Post

Ethics
The Detroit Free Press interviews Democratic Rep. John Conyers' former aides who say they were forced to do personal errands for the lawmaker.  "Conyers ordered them to act as personal servants, tutoring and babysitting his two sons, helping his wife with a law class, and chauffeuring him to political and private events and picking up tabs at restaurants and motels."

While House Republicans continue to debate what kind of lobbying reforms to get behind, a second Senate committee will meet today to draft legislation that would increase lobbyists' disclosure requirements, says the Washington Post.

Sens. Olympia Snowe (R) and Joe Lieberman (D) are calling for the creation of a new office on public integrity which would investigate congressional ethics violations. – Los Angeles Times

Michael Scanlon, disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff's associate who has pleaded guilty to conspiring to defraud the US government, was due to appear in court Wednesday for a status conference but the conference was deferred, reports NBC's Joel Seidman.  However, a joint status report filed on Scanlon in federal court yesterday states, "Mr. Scanlon has been cooperating with government agents and prosecutors.  The government anticipates that Mr. Scanlon's cooperation will continue for the foreseeable future."  Both the prosecution and defense teams have asked the court to defer Scanlon's sentencing so he can continue to work with prosecutors on the Abramoff investigation, per Seidman.  The court papers indicate Scanlon is on the hook for at least three more months.  Scanlon formerly served as spokesman for former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay.

More on the Bush agenda
After January’s mine tragedy in West Virginia, the New York Times front-pages that the Administration, since 2001, has decreased mine companies’ major fines for safety violations -- and has not collected the fines in nearly half of the cases.  “With the deaths of 24 miners in accidents in 2006, the enforcement record of the Mine Safety and Health Administration has come under sharp scrutiny, and the agency is likely to face tough questions about its performance at a Senate oversight hearing on Thursday.”  But the Administration and the industry point out that safety has actually improved.

The Senate Judiciary Committee today begins drafting its version of an immigration-control bill that would require employers to check every worker's Social Security number or immigration work permit against a new federal database.  The House passed its version of the bill last year. The Senate proposal has the support of liberal lion Ted Kennedy.  Bush's new budget "includes $135 million to start expanding the verification system nationwide."  Both sides in the debate "agree that Congress' willingness to consider such a proposal represents a political shift." – USA Today

That said, "a bipartisan push to create a new guest worker program has put Senate Republicans on a collision course with their counterparts in the House."  And in an election year, "an anti-immigrant stand could jeopardize years of outreach to Latino voters," as Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman repeatedly warns his party. – Washington Post

"None of the four bills the Senate is likely to consider this month require the 11 million illegal immigrants to pack up and leave -- a move that would throw" several industries "into a tailspin.  Instead, the debate will be about" what restrictions are set in allowing them to stay.  "Almost everyone in the immigration debate agrees they want to bring illegals from the underground economy."

Roll Calls notes that buried within Senate Judiciary chair Arlen Specter’s immigration legislation in the Senate is a provision that would study ways in which guest workers might benefit from private Social Security accounts -- which raised the eyebrows of some Democrats.

In a conference call with reporters yesterday, representatives from the liberal Emergency Campaign for America's Priorities, which fought against the GOP's budget-reconciliation bill last year, announced that they are re-launching their effort, this time to defeat Bush's 2007 budget.  Chuck Loveless, legislative director of the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (one of ECAP's biggest donors), outlined a five-part strategy to do this: 1) take advantage of the current political climate in this election year ("An election year is not the year to talk about cutting" programs like Medicare); 2) mobilize protests in members' congressional districts; 3) frame the budget "as a moral document" and partner with the religious community to oppose the budget cuts; 4) try to force members to sign a "Take Back America" pledge opposing the 2007 budget and new tax cuts; and 5) run TV ads.

Speaking of which… "Bowing to election-year pressure, Senate Republicans are preparing a budget resolution that largely avoids the billions of dollars in benefit-program savings called for in" Bush's budget, says the Wall Street Journal.

The midterms
Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean makes remarks at the Interethnic Congressional Awards Ceremony and Reception of the Foundation for Ethnic Understanding in Washington at 9:00 am.  Dean also is expected to visit with members of the Congressional Black Caucus today, and Roll Call says CBC members will press him on minority hiring and 2006 politics (especially since the GOP has a handful of prominent African-American candidates running this cycle).

RNC chair Ken Mehlman holds a media availability with women members of Congress this morning to announce the RNC's new women's leadership training program.

The Boston Globe covers the official launch of the Senate Majority Project today, which being funded with help from former Sen. Tom Daschle and is "aimed at creating a clearinghouse of opposition-research information against all Senate Republicans." The project "is being considered a new benchmark in the trend toward 'permanent campaigns,' which specialists said is transforming the political culture."

With less than 100 days until the June primary that will determine Democrats' challenger to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), Phil Angelides held a conference call with liberal Sen. Barbara Boxer yesterday to discuss his first TV ad, which features Boxer supporting Angelides' campaign.  "He may not be a bodybuilder, but Phil Angelides is a builder of dreams," Boxer said on the call.

More California Field Poll numbers: Nearly half of voters (47% to 37%) say they are inclined not to vote for Schwarzenegger in the fall.  “Schwarzenegger trails state Controller Steve Westly 41 percent to 37 percent and is tied with state Treasurer Phil Angelides at 39 percent when matched against each of the two Democratic contenders.  Though Westly fares better against Schwarzenegger, he trails Angelides 26 percent to 18 percent among likely Democratic primary voters - with the overwhelming majority, 54 percent, undecided.” – Sacramento Bee

The Washington Times looks at racial politics in Maryland, saying Democrats there can no longer count on the black vote.  "Black political, business and religious leaders say a shift is occurring, especially among young voters who are less concerned with civil rights and more attentive to economic issues."

Christy Mihos is "bolting" from the Republican Party and running for Massachusetts governor as an independent.  "His entry into the campaign as an independent candidate is a major development in the 2006 race, because he brings millions of dollars of his own money to the contest and could undermine [Lt. Gov. Kerry] Healey's efforts, strategists say." – Boston Globe

And the Houston Chronicle notes that Rep. Tom DeLay’s campaign is canvassing for Texas A&M Aggie flags and Jesus fishes as it tries to round up support for next week’s GOP primary.  “For DeLay,... the intelligence is critical to his goal of wringing as large a margin as he can out of a primary contest that may wind up being closer than he would prefer.”

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