Twenty, twenty, twenty-four Idols to go

With the audition rounds mercifully over, “American Idol” now puts its contestants’ fates in the hands of the viewing public. As Ryan Seacrest will remind everyone over the coming weeks, if someone popular gets voted off, you, the “American Idol” viewer, are personally to blame.  Think about that, the show is saying, before you think about flipping the dial to watch Olympic figure skating instead.

Of course, with other networks unwilling to simply concede Tuesday, Wednesday and (for the next few weeks) Thursday night to the Fox network, the “Idol” talent evaluators have worked to create a compelling group of 24 semifinalists. The show’s producers want viewers rooting for singers, not countries, sports teams, crime dramas or comedies, as the television season continues.

It’s way too early to make bold predictions about who the favorites are; keep in mind that at this time last season, eventual second-place finisher Bo Bice had barely gotten any airtime at all. However, it’s not to early to speculate, or to divide the contestants into groups. Here’s one crack at determining where everyone fits in.

The Teachers’ Pets
The judges role in selection is (theoretically) over. Simon, Paula, Randy and the producers can no longer wave their hands and choose who advances and who does not. Apart from making snarky comments and browbeating offending contestants and the audience until the unlucky person is voted off (see Simon and Anthony Fedorov last year), there isn’t anything they can do about the audience’s tastes.

But it is clear that there are some singers the judges hope make it far in the competition, based on the amount of airtime and positive feedback we’ve seen. That won’t carry enough weight to help the contestants last very long, but it’s crucial in the early weeks. Contestants who have been given a chance to develop a fan base already are likely to survive early struggles, while those lesser-known contestants are under more pressure.

Three men and three women look like the early favorites in this category.

Nobody has been praised more often than Paris Bennett. She’s young, she has good singing genes, and one really powerful voice. With both her mother and grandmother members of the Grammy-winning Sounds of Blackness gospel choir, she likely has the knowledge and strength to avoid typical teen flameouts. (Exhibit A: Mikalah Gordon’s deer-in-the-headlights stare last season).

Kellie Pickler was the star of the Greensboro auditions, and is the closest thing this competition has to Carrie Underwood, who sources say won this competition last year and is selling an awful lot of records. Pickler is no Underwood clone, but footage of her shown at her auditions paints her as someone who could develop a very strong and devoted following.

Lisa Tucker is only 16, but also has the stage experience to carry herself through the competition. She’s been less hyped than Bennett, but the two could develop the fake teenage rivalry that could also lead to more votes. She’s probably less secure than Bennett and Pickler.

The men are easier to spot, probably because so few have been impressive.

The producers really want viewers to like Taylor Hicks. The 29-year-old looks and sounds like Michael McDonald, which isn’t necessarily an easy sell. But he has that rock—star voice and a personality that’s either whimsical or eccentric. It remains to be seen whether bringing a harmonica into the Idol tribunal — and then actually playing it — was the sign of performing genius or utter lunacy.

Chris Daughtry is another rocker who’s developed an early following. He has the very heartwarming backstory and the super-supportive wife that the viewers learned about at the auditions, but hasn’t gotten quite as much airtime since. However, he’s a strong enough singer that odds are small he’d be an early casualty.

Finally, there’s Ace Young. He’s not quite the rocker that Hicks or Daughtry are, but he does have that come-hither look going for him, as well as a nice voice and stage presence. He, too, could go a long way.

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