‘Next New Orleans’ may be in California

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Overconfident and underinsured
Saturday's panelists were unanimous in their view that current policies on flood mitigation and insurance gave too much encouragement to development — and ironically, could lead to more flood-related damage in the long run.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't build better defenses against flooding, said Norbert Schwartz of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. "Mitigation does work," he said. "For every dollar invested, you get a $5 return."

However, once a new levee is built, the requirements for federal flood insurance are eased, and developers feel more confident about going ahead with large-scale construction. "The levee-protected area gave people the impression that it is a safe area," Schwartz said.

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In reality, that's usually not the case. The federal requirements call for levees to be capable of withstanding the kind of flooding that happens, on average, once a century. But Pinter said statistics indicate that the height of a "100-year flood" is being underestimated by 4 to 5 feet (1.2 to 1.5 meters).

Moreover, Pinter pointed out that although the federal government provides support for building the levees, it's up to local governments to maintain them — and many of the nation's levees are poorly maintained. Undermined levees were an Achilles' heel for New Orleans, and appear to be a weak link in California as well, he said.

Visions of the future
Looking ahead, the experts said risk assessments should consider future weather projections rather than simply assessing the historical flood record. In the short term, we're entering a La Niña weather pattern, which is associated with a greater frequency of hurricanes, Pinter said.

In the longer term, changes in global climate may lead to changes in flood risks as well, said Anthony Arquez of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "As the climate warms, we expect more extreme precipitation events. What was once considered a 100-year flood might be a 50-year flood," he said.

One of Galloway's prescriptions would be to raise the standards for levee protection. "100 years is too low," he said. Dutch cities are built to outlast 1,250-year floods, or in some cases even 10,000-year floods, Galloway noted.

Also, Galloway said even those living behind levees in flood-prone areas should be required to carry some level of flood insurance. "There is still residual risk," he said.

Mount had a political prescription as well: "Elect a leader with some courage. The bottom line is, it's far cheaper to have floodplain management than to have flood control. ... Keep it as farms, don't turn it into houses."

Mount said the main problem — for politicians and those who live and work in the nation's floodplains as well as the wider public — is that "we live in a state of denial."

"It is pretty depressing," he acknowledged, "but it's extremely important. Just take a look at Katrina and the human suffering there."

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