Simple test pinpoints your risk of death

< Prev | 1 | 2

The test is based on data involving 11,701 Americans over 50 who took part in a national health survey in 1998. Funded by a grant from the National Institute on Aging, the researchers analyzed participants’ outcomes during a four-year follow-up. They based their death-risk survey on the health characteristics that seemed to predict death within four years.

Their report appears in Wednesday’s Journal of the American Medical Association.

Dr. Donald Jurivich, geriatrics chief at the University of Illinois at Chicago, took the test and got a nice low score. Jurivich is 52. He said he’d feel better about his score if both his parents hadn’t died prematurely.

Story continues below ↓

advertisement | your ad here

He praised the survey for measuring people’s ability to function — such as being able to move a piece of furniture or keep track of expenses — signs that can be more telling than other health factors.

Willie Hood Jr., 74, a patient of Jurivich’s, pooh-poohed the test “because I don’t know when I’m going to die and nobody else” does either.

“My grandmother, they said she wouldn’t last the night away, she lived three more years,” Hood said.

Dr. George Lange, a 57-year-old internist at Columbia-St. Mary’s Hospital in Milwaukee, faulted the test for not measuring blood pressure or cholesterol. Lange got a healthy low score on the test, too, but he’s overweight. He was surprised he didn’t get points for that.

In fact, that’s one of the most puzzling aspects of the test. People with a body-mass index of less than 25 — which includes normal weight people — get a point while those who are overweight aren’t penalized.

Covinsky, one of the test designers, said that BMI measurement includes underweight people — those who have lost weight because of illness, a risk factor for the elderly.

As to obesity, Lee noted there are more points for diabetes and for difficulty walking several blocks — both associated with excess weight.

Click for related content

Test: What's your risk of dying in the next four years?

The researchers think their mortality predictor might be a useful tool in the “pay for performance” trend that is part of the nation’s health care system. Medicare and other insurers are increasingly basing reimbursement rates on how patients fare, said Covinsky.

“One health plan can look better just by cherry-picking health care patients” and accepting only the most robust patients, Covinsky said. This test could give a more accurate assessment of health plans, he said, so that “you can actually see which ones are taking sicker patients and compare that” when measuring performance.

< Prev | 1 | 2