Other areas are not guaranteed safe
Turin is only one possible target, but other locations inside Italy could be targeted, including Milan. Milan certainly has been a hotbed of Islamic radicalism and al-Qaida activity for years. The CIA regarded the Islamic Cultural Institute in Milan as the leading logistics and recruiting base for al-Qaida in all of Europe before the terror attacks of Sept. 11. Although pressure from Italian authorities has led to a toning down of the rhetoric there, it is still viewed with great suspicion by U.S. and Italian authorities. As noted, Milan was also targeted for attack in 2002.
The Italians have also been very proactive, sending out teams of police – carabineri - on raids in neighborhoods where they suspect there is radical Islamic activity. Over the past six months, there have been raids that have mainly netted illegal immigrants, but during those raids, police have also gathered up materials like notebooks, phone books and computers to help with intelligence collection and analysis.
The expulsion of Bouchta and the raids on illegal immigrants has also resulted in some Islamists leaving Italy voluntarily.
The anarchist threat
The most likely threat come from Italian anarchists, U.S. and Italian authorities agree. But the threat is also less likely to be as catastrophic as an Islamic radical attack. Like the anti-globalization protests in Genoa for the G-8 summit there in July 2001, Olympic protests have the capability of drawing large numbers of people intent on disruption - tens of thousands are possible. Anarchist activists, for example, were on hand Dec. 6 for a rally that led to an attack on the Turin Olympic superstore. There have also been attacks on McDonalds, Blockbuster and other American companies in Italy in the past year.
Most of the anarchist organizing has been centered on the Treno Alta Velocita (TAV), a high-speed rail line being built in the Val di Susa area between Lyon and Turin. Local residents, environmental activists and anarchists have organized against it.
As a confidential analysis of the movement written by the U.S. State Department’s Overseas Security Assistance Council in January noted: “Several activists have linked the TAV construction project with the infrastructure development for the 2006 Winter Olympic Games due to the perceived similarities in harming the environment and disruption to local communities in Turin and surrounding areas.”
U.S. officials also are concerned that the anarchists could be planning sensational acts to coincide with the Games, including attacks on local banks, Olympic venues and local and multinational companies sponsoring the Games.
"The Italians have worked very hard to manage the local protesters who oppose the construction of the TAV high-speed railway through Val Susa,” says Cressey, “While there are certain to be some protests over the TAV during the Olympics, the Italians believe they will stay peaceful if they involve only local residents. The greater concern is the potential presence of anti-globalists who may come to Turin from elsewhere in Europe. Any protests they attempt are bound to be far more disruptive and destructive and would be a serious embarrassment for Silvio Berlusconi's government just a couple months before national elections.”
Anarchist groups to watch
The leading anarchist groups are:
- The FAI or Italian Anarchist Federation and its affiliate, FAT, or the Turin Anarchist Federation. Rather than causing great harm, the group appears to be limiting its activities to distributing anti-Olympic propaganda, causing minor property damage — like the attack on the Olympic Superstore — and partaking in peaceful demonstrations. They are viewed as having the most potential to disrupt the Games, however, because of the large numbers of people they can organize and because of the nature of the Winter Games — far-flung venues spread out on narrow roads susceptible to problems caused by weather in even the most benign circumstances.
- CSOA or Askatasuna Turin, a group based at a left-leaning social center in Turin. Members have actively opposed the Games and Italian anti-terrorism police recently raided the center searching for arms and explosives, though there is no indication they found any. Askatasuna reportedly provided logistical support for the violent Genoa protests in 2001.
- FOACR, or the Phoenix Astronomical Observatory Against Repression, is a squatter social center in Turin. The group's members also have protested the Games and TAV for the usual environmental, political and social reasons. They have been distributing anti-Olympic propaganda, squatting in abandoned buildings, vandalizing transportation facilities, displaying posters in public places, etc. It is unlikely they will pose any serious threat in spite of their open campaigning.
Anarchists have disrupted the torch run and in the past other leftists have sent “IED’s” — better described as “parcel bombs” — to officials. But they are not intended to harm as much as carry a message.
The big worry is that if they go to the venues, they will try to stop the events. The protests could go from being peaceful to violent. The U.S. believes some violence will take place.
Web resources
The National Counter Terrorism Center lists all the known terrorist groups operating in Italy.
The State’s Overseas Security Assistance Council monitors and reports on regional security for American businesses operating overseas, with both public and confidential streams — the former a compilation of Olympic news, the latter available to U.S. corporations.
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