Spies, charm offensives and terrorists in ‘05

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Iraq, war on terror dominate landscape
And there has been little appreciable progress in the war on terror.

The one major exception was the capture last May of Abu Faraj al Libi — potentially important if he provides details about his past attempts to kill Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf along with future terror plots. As al-Qaida's third in command, he was in a position to have real-time operational knowledge of terror plans and served as a conduit for contact between al-Qaida and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's group inside Iraq.

Perhaps most important, he might have information about al-Qaida’s top leaders, Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri. Throughout 2005, only Zawahri has been seen on videos.

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In fact, bin Laden has not been seen or heard since an audio recording in December 2004 and a video that appeared in October of that year. For whatever reason, this is the longest period of silence from the world's most notorious terrorist in the post 9/11 era.

Since April, Washington's counterterror efforts have been led by a new director of national intelligence, John Negroponte. Inhabiting a position recommended partly by the 9/11 commission, he has had to meld more than a dozen agencies into one coherent whole, with mixed results.

During 2005, American intelligence took some comfort in the possibility that continuing efforts had contained bin Laden, but they still do not rest easy this New Year's.

In the past year, al-Qaida inspired terrorists have taken a heavy toll in well coordinated, separate attacks in Amman, Jordan and London. Also ominous is the growth of smaller regional groups, like the one that bombed the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheik.

And the past year has seen the rise in prominence and ambition of the Jordanian-born al-Zarqawi — independent of bin Laden, and for the duration of the U.S. stay in Iraq, more lethal to Americans.

Iraq will continue to dominate
As 2005 ended, the continuing war in Iraq still dominated U.S. foreign policy and the war on terror, setting the terms for relations with allies and adversaries. As 2006 begins, the war also promises to be the most important single factor in the midterm elections.

And the political debate in Congress over the war is already defining the chances of potential candidates for 2008 — possibly, despite her denials, including the secretary of state.

So no matter how George Bush's domestic policies fare in the year ahead, his foreign policy — and likely his legacy — will ultimately be judged by whether or not he succeeds in Iraq.

Andrea Mitchell is NBC News Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent.

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