Hybrids alter economics for carmakers, owners

For automakers, the main challenge has been to design and engineer drive trains with two separate power sources — without adding big costs. One big hurdle has been the relatively slow pace of improvement in battery technology. Advances in lithium ion power storage may some day bring smaller lighter batteries. But for now hybrids rely on large, heavy nickel metal hydride technology, which adds significant cost and weight to each vehicle.

“In the world of nickel metal hydride, the supply base is very immature, the choice of suppliers is very limited and the economies of scale are very limited,” said Nitz.

With American carmakers slashing jobs and looking for ways to cut costs, designers are also looking for ways to produce more cars with fewer workers. That may be tough to do with drivetrains that include the added parts needed to provide two separate power systems.

And while any new technology brings the prospect of further job cutbacks, expanding hybrid production should be good news for workers who are worried about their jobs, according to Harley Shaiken, a professor at the University of California in Berkeley who specializes in labor and the global economy.

“It is potentially very good news for autoworkers if the U.S. firms get with the program,” he said. “The danger isn’t hybrid technology. The danger is that the Big Three are slow to adopt and to adapt to where the markets going.”

For hybrid owners, it's too soon to know how the cost of upkeep and repairs will compare to conventional cars and light trucks. So far the track record for most hybrid owners has been good. But Toyota recently recalled 160,000 Prius hybrids because of problems with their engines stopping. A glitch in the computer programming controlling the electronic units was believed to be behind the problem.

The long-term reliability of any new technology is difficult to predict. To increase the turnaround time from design to production, automakers have stepped up what is known as accelerated testing of new parts and technologies, running them under stressful conditions to simulate their expected life span and identify problems. But they are finding that this virtual testing can only go so far, according to Cole.

“It might be just the age of a wiring insulator, where the polymer changes over a period of time,” he said. “You can do all sort of sorts of accelerated testing, but when five years goes by you’ve got a problem that you never saw in that accelerated testing. That’s an issue that every one of the manufacturers has run into.”

So far, with so few hybrids on the road, there are very few showing up in repair shops. Dealers and independent service centers say their technicians are already trained to take care of the increasingly complex technology in conventional cars and light trucks. So the introduction of hybrids doesn’t represent a radical change. It does, however, highlight a growing shortage of trained workers who can tackle the latest advances in auto repair, said Dennis DeCota, executive director of the California Service Station and Automotive Repair Association.

“Our basic problem has been getting sufficient training with the cutbacks on the junior college and state college levels in automotive repair programs,” he said. “Career technical education has taken a back seat in many districts, and it’s created a huge shortfall of qualified technicians. We’re running into a real problem.”

And there is a big battle brewing over so-called "after market" parts. As electronics become more deeply embedded, automakers are holding back the software needed to make aftermarket parts and diagnostic tools, according repair shop owners. So the parts industry is looking for help from Congress with the proposed Right to Repair Act, which would force automakers to provide more information to after-market companies that make spare parts.

“Even with the non-hybrids, the after-market parts companies are getting squeezed out of making after market parts — especially the electronic stuff,” said Ken Bach, owner of Bach Auto in Smithton, Penn. “So with these hybrids, I see a definite problem: that if you need something, you’re only going to be able to get it from the dealer or the manufacturer.”

Bach says without competition from after-market parts makers, the cost of hybrid replacement parts will remain high.

“Once a part becomes available in the after market, you watch how much it decreases in price at the dealer level,” he said. “If there isn’t an after-market fender available, the fender could be $500. he said. The minute the after market fender becomes available, it’ll drop to $300.”

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