Transcript for December 18

MS. IFILL:  You know, it's very interesting. I've been thinking about this since the president did what he did yesterday, which was actually quite remarkable. When's the last time you heard the president say, "Yeah, I may have," as Russ Feingold said, "broken the law, but I did it for you"? With apologies to Elizabeth Cooper Ross, there are three stages of this: Denial which we — came up, as we saw when he said to Jim Lehrer what he said, "We didn't do anything. We can't talk about it." That wasn't tenable anymore. He said, "This is victory. I'm going to claim victory."  That didn't work. Acceptance. Then they said, "You know, we made some mistakes."  This all happened in the last seven days. "We made some mistakes; I take some responsibility."

And then there is anger and there's a push-back against Congress and calling them irresponsible and saying that by — deep-sixing the Patriot Act was a real problem, that this was a real problem and that they were bringing — as Bill Frist said, they were siding with the terrorists or, you know, guaranteeing defeat in Iraq.

The problem with all of this is it's clearly driven by something fundamental that they're either seeing in their poll numbers or they're seeing in their inability to break through. When Jim asked the president about the spying story, the president said, "This isn't the big story of the day. Iraq is the big story of the day."  And that's what he's been trying to do, and that's what the speech tonight is about, and that's what yesterday's announcement was about, getting past this issue which really cuts for people this idea of being spied on domestically.

MR. RUSSERT:  How big of an issue?

MR. JOHN HARWOOD:  I think it's very big, and it's going to be fascinating to see how it plays out. I talked to a Bush strategist the other day who said, "Don't these Democrats get it, that they're on the wrong side of the issue? Don't they remember what happened to them in the fall of 2002 when we beat them around the head and shoulders over the creation of the Homeland Security Department?"  And the asset they have is that our polling has shown--we didn't ask it on this poll, but in the past, when you ask, are they striking the right balance on civil liberties, are they going too far?  The public doesn't think they're going too far, however, the Democrats have a couple of advantages they didn't have last time. First of all, some Republican senators are speaking out on--in favor of their position. And second, this administration does not have the credibility today that it had in the fall of 2002, and it's not likely to get it back. So how this plays out as we move into 2006 is going to be very interesting.

MR. RUSSERT:  But we've seen the administration take the offensive on this issue, "We were trying to do the right thing."  And on the Patriot Act, as you mentioned, Gwen, Ken Mehlman, the chairman of the Republican Party, said this: "By obstructing permanent renewal of the Patriot Act, Democrats are again putting politics before national security. In 2002, the American people rejected politicians who blocked the Department of Homeland Security to appease public employee unions. Democrats who blocked the Patriot Act to appease the hard left should beware."

The irony, of course, is the administration initially opposed the creation of a Department of Homeland Security, turned on a dime, embraced it and used it as a wedge issue. Are we going to see the same thing on this?

MS. IFILL:  Well, I guess you could call that appeasement. We also saw him this week sit down with John McCain and then change his mind and reverse himself on these anti-torture provisions. I mean, I think what the administration seems to be trying to do is to say, this--to understand that Congress is less popular than the president is, and as long as you paint the Congress as obstructionists on all these issues, the president has a chance to break through and make his point, which is, "I'm trying to do the best I can for you."

MR. HARWOOD:  But the one thing we seen in our polling that's pretty clear, Tim, is that the further we get away from 9/11, the weaker the president's political position has gotten. His approval ratings just ended this year, averaged in our poll 44 percent. That's a steady decline since 2002. So whether they can prosecute that argument with the same success is very much in doubt.

MR. RUSSERT:  It is interesting looking at the polling on Iraq. Let's look at it. U.S. troops in Iraq, maintain current troop levels, 35 percent; reduce, 60 percent. But then this question:  Immediate withdrawal?  Yes, 27; no, 68. And the White House sees those numbers and said, "We're buying time. The American people want us to get out but they don't want us to pull out immediately. So if we can get this political process working and begin to recycle some of the troops and lower the number down, show progress, we'll be just fine."

MS. IFILL:  Which is why I wouldn't be surprised if tonight in his speech the president doesn't begin to hint at that. We already began to hear some this from General George Casey, when the president was asked about it--when Jim asked him about it the other day, he said, "Well, we're obviously going to draw down the troops we sent to keep the election safe," and then the next question was, "And then what?"  And he said, "We'll see."  He didn't say, "We're staying the course with the number we have, that the troop levels are correct."  He didn't say, "I'm waiting to see what the generals tell me."  He said, "We'll see," which I think is opening the gates to being able to say to Americans if not now then at the State of the Union, "We are starting to draw down. They're going to stand up; we're going to stand down."

MR. HARWOOD:  Tim, I talked to Joe Biden on Friday, the ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee. He says that he expects 50,000 troops will come out between now and the end of 2006 and we'll be at about 100,000 troops. So the administration clearly would like to do that. The question is whether conditions are going to permit that to happen which is the standard that they've always set for what their decision's going to be.

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