Democrats giddy about chances in 2006

Mark Murray Deputy political director

ORLANDO, Fla. - Talk about a difference. This time a year ago, Democrats were in the midst of their winter of discontent. They had failed to defeat George W. Bush in the presidential election, they had lost four seats in the Senate, and they also had lost more ground in the House. “We've got to reassess ourselves,” Democratic strategist James Carville lamented after the elections. “We've got to be born again."

But as prominent Democrats (including those eyeing a presidential bid in 2008) gathered here in Walt Disney World over the weekend for the Florida Democratic Party’s conference, the mood was upbeat, boastful even, about picking up seats in next year’s midterm elections -- and perhaps even regaining control of Congress. “I am hugely optimistic about our chances,”  former Sen. John Edwards, who was John Kerry’s running mate, told reporters.

“We’re coming, and we’re going to getcha,” the usually mild-mannered Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa told the gathering Saturday.

Did Disney World make these Democrats a bit, well, goofy? Hardly. They have plenty of reasons to feel optimistic about next year’s elections. Bush’s poll numbers remain at politically perilous levels, although they have begun to inch up. The public also is still dissatisfied with how the Bush administration has handled the Iraq war, the economy, and Hurricane Katrina.

In addition, ethics scandals have ensnared Republicans: A Texas prosecutor has indicted Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Texas, on political money-laundering charges, forcing DeLay to step down from his leadership post in the House; Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham, R-Calif., recently pleaded guilty on bribery and tax-evasion charges; and an ethical cloud surrounding Republican uber-lobbyist Jack Abramoff is hovering over additional GOP lawmakers. What’s more, Democrats can point their gubernatorial victories last month in New Jersey and Virginia as a sign of things to come in 2006.

Let's do the math
But Democrats might not want to begin drafting their victory speeches just yet. While the political environment certainly seems to be in their favor, they still have plenty of obstacles to overcome before taking back control of Congress, let alone picking up seats.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle is next year’s map. Republicans currently hold a 55-45 advantage in the Senate, a 230-203 advantage in the House, and a 28-22 advantage in governorships. Although there will be 33 Senate contests next year, only one of them -- in Tennessee -- features a Republican-held seat that’s open. That means Democrats, in order to take back control of the Senate, have to defeat five GOP incumbents, plus win the open seat. And that’s assuming Democrats don’t lose any seats they currently hold.

In the House, all 435 seats are up for grabs, but the nonpartisan Cook Political Report says that just 28 of them are competitive, and 18 of these are held by Republicans. That means Democrats must win 83 percent of these GOP-held competitive seats to take back the House, says National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Carl Forti. “The math is very difficult.”

For Democrats, however, the math looks much better when it comes to next year’s 36 gubernatorial races. Republicans must defend 22 seats (seven of which have no incumbent, and that number could increase), while Democrats defend 14 seats (just one of which is open).

Democrats say they realize the math makes it difficult for them to win back Congress, but they believe the overall political environment, their fundraising, and their candidate recruitment has given them the opportunity to win seats next year. “We feel pretty good about our chances to pick up seats,” says Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Phil Singer. “Things have gotten off to a very strong start.”

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