In the U.K., a year of marvel ... and then murder

Warming up the lame duck stew
The attacks came just two months after another celebration for Tony Blair. In May the British election came and went and the still-youthful prime minister once again found himself snuggling down with Cherie on Number 10’s well-padded sofas.

It was a historic victory — the first time a Labor government has had three straight wins —though this time it was a much closer finish, and a much-reduced parliamentary majority. Blair said he’d learned a lesson.

But he hardly had time to fluff up the cushions when there were unusual noises outside the window. These were not the cheers of a grateful public that he was used to hearing.

These were cries for him to go — sooner rather than later, and from people on his own side.

Blair should, perhaps, have seen it coming. His backing of the U.S. invasion of Iraq proved to be deeply unpopular, leading to taunts of his being "President Bush's poodle."

He could have decided to stay his ground — he still had much backing in his party (and in British politics there are no term limits and a prime minister can stay in office as long as the electorate and his party want him to).

However, he chose to declare his hand: he will stand down when this term is up. (Each term is variable — depending on political circumstances — up to five years.)

But in politics it is always a risky strategy to announce in advance the date of your own demise. Plenty of rivals have a liking for lame duck stew. 

Over the years, Blair has been adept at keeping himself off the menu. The “Trust me, I’m Tony” image has served him well.

But after eight years in power the rust-spots are beginning to break through the glitter.

The job has taken its toll. His easy-going, confident smile looks increasingly careworn and forced. Suddenly, he’s 52 going on 62.

There will always be loyal followers who acknowledge Blair’s many achievements. But there appear to be a growing number among his own ranks who think he’s lost his touch, that he’s not the sure-fire vote-winner he was. Others simply think he’s wrong, that he’s made some serious mistakes. Not least Iraq.

Unlike the U.S.A., Britain has long been more outspoken in its questioning of the war — and more unforgiving.  It has always been a harder sell for Blair than Bush.

Military intervention traditionally sits harder with Labor than with their right-wing opponents.

Many voters believe Blair’s support for the war — and for this Republican president in particular — was hasty and ill-judged. Some believe his government has played fast and loose with the reasons they gave for going into Iraq at all. 

In Parliament, Blair is facing clear signs of disunity from his own MPs (members of parliament).  The Conservative opposition — for the first time in a decade — may be about to get its act together under a new leader.

But perhaps the biggest challenge to Blair comes from much closer to home – his next door neighbor in Downing Street, his sometime friend, his oft-times rival: Gordon Brown, chancellor of the exchequer.

History has it that back when Blair and Brown were young aspiring politicians they did a deal: Brown would reluctantly put his own ambitions to one side to give Blair first crack at the prime minister’s job.

It has been an uneasy truce and Brown — a brainy and dour Scot who lacks Blair’s charisma — has been waiting impatiently in line for years.

For all that, Blair clearly likes being prime minister and says he has no plans to quit before it suits him.

I suspect Brown’s New Years greetings card to his neighbor will likely read: “Don’t count on it, Tony.”

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