Chances for U.S. run in World Cup? Slim

Filip Bondy

Back in Florence at Italia '90, the U.S. national soccer team opened the World Cup against Czechoslovakia and was wholly embarrassed in a 5-1 trouncing. Oversized striker Tomas Skuhravy ran rampant, scoring twice. The nervous Americans didn't belong on the same field with the European side.

A few days later, the Americans faced host Italy in a second match, accounting themselves better, but lost again, 1-0. And that was pretty much the end of that World Cup, right there.

"I was there, I sat in the stands in Italy and shook my head, and I don't mean that as disrespect," coach Bruce Arena said. "It was clear we had a long way to go. We get to replay those games now, and it'll be interesting to see what kind of progress we've made."

Sixteen years later, the U.S. will measure just how far it has progressed on the international stage, with a remarkably similar draw at Germany 2006. The first two opponents in the four-nation Group E are very nearly the same. But these Americans, hopefully, are no longer recognizable.

The task is not impossible, for an American team that advanced into the quarterfinals and nearly beat Germany in Korea '02. It is just more difficult to finish among the top two teams than it might have been, particularly when you consider the relatively easy path for rival Mexico (grouped with Iran, Angola and Portugal).

The Americans must face the Czech Republic on June 12 in Gelsenkirchen; Italy on June 17 in Kaiserslautern; and Ghana in Nuremberg on June 22.

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Those may well be the only three matches they get, if this World Cup plays to form. But stuff happens, we learned in 2002. The Americans are better than their parts, and are capable of a surprise or two.

Consider the tests ahead:

The Czechs are extremely gifted, but a bit overrated at their No. 2 world ranking by FIFA right now. Superstar Pavel Nedved has come out of international retirement to rejoin such talented and veteran teammates as goalie Petr Cech, midfielder Tomas Rosicky and attackers like Karel Poborsky, Vladimir Smicer and Milan Baros. There is a new Czech giant, Jan Koller, a Skuhravy knock-off.

"They're physical, strong," Ralston said. "Koller is 6-7, you can't afford to give up set pieces against them. He's very dangerous."

The Czechs are certainly not a team you would choose for your group. But they have been erratic in qualifying, this year and over the past decade. This is the first time the Czech Republic is in the World Cup, really, having last qualified in 1990 before the divorce as Czechoslovakia.

The Italians, perhaps, can be baited into a scoreless tie, because they always become too cautious in the World Cup. They have wonderful strikers and attacking midfielders, yet never take full advantage.

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This time, dapper Italy coach Marcello Lippi can call on Francesco Totti, Alberto Gilardino, Luca Toni or old reliable Alessandro Del Piero. But the more that Italy talks about going forward, the more it will go back and protect its box — especially as stalwart Paolo Maldini (he turns 38 during the World Cup) ages, ceding leadership to the younger Alessandro Nesta. Catenaccio, or "door bolt," is the historic style of Italian soccer, until proven differently.

"Italy is a very defensive team, very well organized, they look to counter-attack," said Steve Ralston, a U.S. defender who watched the draw yesterday from the Adidas store in New York. "Their defense is rock solid."

Ghana, a surprise qualifier, is ranked No. 50 in the world and has substantial young talent, but is brand new at this kind of pressure and may well be eliminated before the Americans face them in the final group match of the first round.

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