Survivor’s paranoia is self-fulfilling prophecy

Jeff Probst often tells “Survivor” contenders their current odds of winning the game. This week, he informed everyone, the person who won immunity would have a one-in-seven shot at a million dollars.

Mathematically and statistically, Probst is correct. But in reality, winning the game is nowhere near as simple as reaching into a bag and drawing one marble from a group of seven.

That’s because there are a number of factors that stand in the way of winning, and most of those involve your fellow players. On “Survivor,” a player can’t just show up having decided to play a certain way. Contestants must be flexible and prepared to deal with anything and anyone, anytime. The composition of the cast is the most important factor.

Perhaps even more important, though, is a player’s emotional stability and ability to be at peace inside his or her head.  Surprisingly, few people have self-destructed in the history of “Survivor.” There have been quitters (Pearl Islands’ Osten), and people who’ve essentially given up (Palau’s Ian).

But “Survivor Guatemala” has brought us perhaps the first game-related emotional meltdown, brought on by a severe case of paranoia and self-doubt. The infected: Jamie.

Torch-snuffing was a mercy killing
Jamie seemed guaranteed a place in the final six, because his alliance was so strong. After the merge, his group — which included Stephenie, Rafe, Lydia, Judd, and Cindy — held together, voting off members of the other tribe. Their plan would likely have continued this week, as Gary, protected at the last Tribal Council by his discovery of the hidden immunity idol, was the next to go, and he knew it.

Gary was spared, however, because every member of Jamie’s alliance except Judd eventually turned on Jamie, and he was voted out. “Blindsided! Now that’s how you vote somebody out!” he exclaimed after Jeff Probst extinguished his torch.

Considering the behavior that preceded his elimination, that was perhaps the most rational response possible; I half-expected him to take his torch and run around screaming, lighting things like small shrubs and Jeff Probst on fire.

Jamie may have been surprised by the outcome, but his tribe didn’t blindside or backstab him by targeting him. Instead, they performed a mercy killing, because Jamie was going crazy.

Over the past few weeks, we’ve watched as Jamie’s behavior has become more and more erratic. He’s questioned his tribemates’ behavior, and even his friends have noted that he has been growing increasingly paranoid and confrontational. After he and Bobby Jon clashed at a challenge, he picked pointless hyper-masculine fights with Bobby Jon (thankfully, they’ve since made up, probably since they’re both members of the jury).

With Bobby Jon voted out at last week’s Tribal Council, Jamie came back to camp with no one to direct his insecurity toward.  So, he worked to manifest the problems that he’d convinced himself existed, first by instigating a pointless conflict with Cindy, and then by jumping on Gary. Both times, he manufactured problems, as if to validate his paranoia by creating conflict.  Even his friend Judd couldn’t understand what his problem was and told him to shut up. “Come on, Jamie, forget about it,” he said.

“Emotionally, I guess this game might be taking a toll on him.  And really, psychologically, he’s losing it,” Judd told us in an interview. Later, Rafe said nearly the same thing: “I think that Jamie is just kind of losing it almost, in terms of paranoia.  Like, he’s just letting the game really, really get to him, and he’s constantly freaked out.”

They were right. At the reward challenge, the remaining eight were split into two teams, and Jamie’s team lost. Back at camp, he talked to Rafe, suggesting a final-three alliance between them and Judd. When Rafe said he’d consider it, Jamie became visibly upset because Rafe didn’t say yes immediately. So he broadened his proposal. “Will you swear to the top six?” Jamie asked. “I already have,” a baffled Rafe said.

“I’m so scared that you’ll change your mind, though, Rafe,” Jamie said. “I just don’t want to get suckered, dude. Don’t sucker me.”

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