The Alito schism

And now, some numbers
The NEWSWEEK poll shows that Americans aren’t “abortion on demand” types.

While voters tend to identify themselves as “pro-choice,” by a 57-34 percent majority, they are far from supporting abortion under any circumstances, and strong majorities are quite willing to support the kinds of procedural restrictions that drive pro-choice purists crazy. For example, even a plurality of Democrats (47-45 percent) says that an abortion should be illegal if its sole purpose is to avoid the economic burden of raising a child. And even Democrats are deeply (a slim 51-43 percent majority) ambivalent about allowing an abortion if its sole reason is that the mother “does not want to have a child.”

Democrats (and the rest of the country) strongly support certain hedges around abortion rights: parental consent for teenagers (68 percent “yes” for Democrats, 71 percent in the country as a whole); parental notification (73 and 78 percent respectively); counseling on the dangers of abortion (78 and 81 percent); notification of the husband (64 and 67 percent); 24-hour waiting period (67 and 71).

Danger ahead
The risk for the Dems is more than in the numbers, it’s a sense that they are so secular that they can’t see the faith-filled American forest for the trees. And now, thanks to the memo, the seculars, who dominate the party‘s fundraising on both Coasts and on the Internet, are in a “we told you so” mood about Alito. The Democratic base will demand nothing less than all-out opposition.

That will put Democrats in the Senate in a tough position, especially those who want to run for president. I am thinking, for example, of Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, a cultural moderate who supports some abortion restrictions. Does he dare vote for Alito?

It’s not hard to imagine the debates and ads in, say Iowa or New Hampshire, against anyone who votes for a judge who once declared that “the Constitution does not protect a right to abortion.”

The same goes for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and John Kerry. They’ve got to vote “no.” They will argue that Alito was too “extreme” to merit support. That will work in the primaries, for sure, but not necessarily in a general election.

Republicans shouldn’t enjoy the spectacle of any Democratic discomfort over this issue. The GOP has a severe problem of its own, perhaps even the deeper one.

The last thing they wanted was a Supreme Court nominee this out front on abortion. The whole idea was to find someone whose personal views were sufficiently vague to finesse the abortion issue with the American people and the Senate. But first Alito’s mom gave testimony to his pro-life bona fides, and now Alito’s own writings have done the same. He can’t say that this was youthful exuberance (unless he wants to argue that 35 is “youthful”), and he can’t argue that he was fudging for the purpose of getting a job.

That wouldn’t sound good in front of the committee.

So the GOP is stuck with an admitted pro-life purist. And what’s wrong with that? Well, look at the first of the numbers I cited above, and then at a state such as Pennsylvania. It’s culturally conservative (“Pittsburgh and Philly with Alabama in between” James Carville famously observed) and two pro-life contenders are squaring off in the pivotal Senate race next year.

But, already burdened by President Bush’s low poll numbers and his own hard-right image, Republican Sen. Rick Santorum can’t afford to carry any extra weight if he hopes to win votes in the key battleground, the suburbs of Philadelphia. Santorum will surely vote for Alito, but the potential cost of doing so has just gone up.

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